[kulahan]

Japan's judicial system has something like a 99% conviction rate. It's "safe" because they swipe up every single criminal they can, plus a bunch of random people in the process. So everyone is naturally going to be on their best behavior.

[tristanj]

The claim that Japan is "safe" because it has a high conviction rate is a junk meme. The United States federal conviction rate is essentially identical to the Japanese judicial conviction rate when measured by the same methodology. It's roughly 99.6-99.8% depending on the year.

Japan is safe because of other factors, not their conviction rate.

> they swipe up every single criminal they can, plus a bunch of random people

And this is completely baseless.

[kulahan]

That's absolutely wrong. In the US it's closer to 93%. If you can't tell the difference between "sometimes we get the wrong guy, then let him go" and "we literally never make a mistake", I don't think this conversation can continue in good faith.

Edit: Japan literally has a higher conviction rate than authoritarian regimes. It's like trying to argue the US doesn't have a birthing problem because we "only" have 5.6 infant deaths per thousand.

[tristanj]

> In the US it's closer to 93%

Yeah, you have no understanding of the systems you are talking about, nor any understanding of the numbers you are copy-pasting. You are comparing apples to oranges. The United States federal conviction rate, when measured using the same metrics as the Japanese conviction rate, is ~99.6% [0]. Read the Pew Research article Fewer than 1% of federal criminal defendants were acquitted in 2022 to understand why [0].

The Japanese system is structured so that prosecutors do intense filtering before indictment. In Japan, prosecutors decide to indict in fewer than one-third of referred cases. Approximately 65-70% of cases are dropped before formal charges are filed. After charges are filed, post-charge dismissals are extremely rare (0.026%) and only occur in extraordinary cases. The post-charge dismissal rate is essentially zero.

By contrast, the United States federal system filters less aggressively before indictment. It allows 83% of referred cases through to indictment. It then filters again, and drops 8.2% of charged defendants after charges are filed, in post-charge dismissal.

The United States system has post-charge dismissals, and the Japanese system does not. These are fundamentally different systems, and cannot be compared directly. To make the systems comparable, US post-charge dismissals should be counted as pre-charge dismissals like they would be under the Japanese system. Then the metrics can be compared equivalently.

When measured on the same metric (acquittals as a share of all formally charged defendants), the gap between the two systems disappears. Japan's acquittal rate is approximately 0.1%. The US federal acquittal rate is 0.4%. Both are under 1%.

> "sometimes we get the wrong guy, then let him go" and "we literally never make a mistake"

This claim demonstrates no understanding of the Japanese legal system. Approximately two-thirds of cases in the Japanese legal system are dropped before charges are filed. This is what happened to the woman in the submitted article, there was not enough evidence to prosecute, so the charges were dropped. Japan's rate of dropping charges is far higher than in the United States legal system, where only 25% of cases are dropped pre-charges, and another 8% are dropped post-charges. The US system only drops one-in-three cases. Japan drops two-in-three cases. Comparing the two systems, Japan prosecutes half as many cases as does the United States, on a per-case basis.

The irony is, Japan literally falls under your invented category of "sometimes we get the wrong guy, then let him go". Japan lets people go at twice the rate of the US federal system. You're parroting claims without any understanding of the system behind it.

[0] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/06/14/fewer-tha...

[kulahan]

It’s not worth addressing all the inane stuff you made up here, but it is pretty funny that you essentially dance around the one problem I’ve mentioned, explain that Japan actually just incarcerates innocent people at twice the rate of the US only to let them go, and then complain I don’t understand the “legal system” (I’ve only mentioned one highly specific part so far). This is the worst astroturfing I’ve ever seen.

Edit: also very funny that you’re comparing it to the USA - one of the worst developed nations’ criminal justice systems. Shit I’d almost rather get arrested in Russia. Could you compare it to a nation that isn’t the constant butt of jokes in the specific topic we’re discussing?

[formerly_proven]

Both of these jurisdictions have low prosecution and high conviction rates, because the conviction rate is an artifact of prosecutors only going to trial if they now they'll win. In the US this is heavily confounded by plea bargains, since prosecutors can get punishments without even having to go to trial.

[iamnothere]

Exactly. What is it with the weird attacks on Japan here? Chinese sockpuppet accounts maybe?

[tristanj]

It comes from a cursory understanding of the world outside of western countries. People watch a few videos on youtube about other countries, or visit on vacation for a week, and assume they understand the mentality of people who live there. It's hubris. Then they apply western moralities to other cultures, implicitly assuming their own western ideals are superior.

For example, pretty much everything kulahan wrote about Japan in the grandparent comment is completely made up. Good narrative, emotionally aligned, feels true, stated with complete confidence, but absolutely fictitious.

[kulahan]

How is this the third comment lying to defend Japan? This is the weirdest astroturfing I've ever seen. This isn't even something people argue over - there's a whole wiki article on how shitty the Japanese legal system is. Weebs are awful, I swear.

[tristanj]

The issues with your comments are:

1) You obviously don't understand the Japanese legal system.

2) You're very comfortable lying, and making up false claims about the Japanese legal system.

3) You don't address your lies when they are called out.

4) There are genuine issues with the Japanese legal system that you could critique, but you're unable to articulate these issues and instead resort to (2).

For example, you could critique Japan's 23 day arbitrary detention policy, but instead you focused on Japan's high conviction rate which is actually very comparable to that of other nations.

[kulahan]

It’s higher than authoritarian nations lol, it’s insanely high. It’s not close to other nations in anything other than a very strict “99 is kinda close to 93 if we ignore the context of the number. Insanely confusing hill to die on…

[kulahan]

A single valid complaint about a nation isn't inherently some kind of propaganda. The only type of account that would imply this in this scenario (other than an extremely ignorant one) is a Japanese sock puppet account, ironically.

[tristanj]

Nope, it's an invalid complaint. You stated "they [Japan] swipe up every single criminal they can, plus a bunch of random people" which is utter bullshit and a total fabrication.

If you didn't invent lies, then your comments would be received differently.

[kulahan]

Ok dear, it’s called hyperbole