[vkou]

Belarus developed much faster than Ukraine in the decade between the Orange revolution and the start of the war. It's per-capita GDP quadrupled (to a much higher end result) in that time, while Ukraine's only doubled.

Yet, Belarus is politically 100% a Russian province.

How exactly does your theory explain that gap?

[Sabinus]

Belarus was rewarded for loyalty. Ukraine was unstable, oligarchic, and increasingly punished for partial exit.

Belarus in 2004-2014 is a subsidised client. Ukraine after 2004 Orange Revolution is a contested borderland. They are different mechanisms inside the same imperial political system.

Russian dominance can produce short term client-state rents (Russia sells very cheap crude to Belarus, Belarus sells world price refined products to world market), but it tends to trap countries in dependency, weak modernization, and political subordination. When a country tries to leave the orbit, the coercive part of the system appears. Ukraine had it's gas price dramatically increased, then supply interrupted, among other pressure.

[drysine]

So when Russia sells oil for low price - it's rewarding for loyalty, when Russian sells gas for normal price - it's punishment.

What the price of hydrocarbons should be to make you happy?

>then supply interrupted

You might have consumed too much of Western and Ukrainian propaganda, if you re-translate it in 2026, long after Ukrainian lies have been exposed.

"The conflict began when Russia claimed that Ukraine was not paying for gas and was diverting gas bound from Russia to the European Union from pipelines that crossed the country. Ukrainian officials at first denied the last accusation, but later Naftogaz admitted it used some gas intended for other European countries for domestic needs. The dispute peaked on January 1, 2006 when Russia cut off supply.[" [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005%E2%80%932006_Russia%E2%80...

[vkou]

You may be onto something with respect to how hegemons and empires operate.

[drysine]

Or maybe it's how customs unions work - when you inside, you benefit from free trade with other members, when you outside - you don't.

[distances]

Russian propaganda is really running out of steam if Belarus of all countries is now the success case. What's next, statistics of how happy the North Koreans are?

[drysine]

And this how one deflects an argument grounded in economic facts.

[drysine]

>if Belarus of all countries is now the success case

That's how easy it is to be a success case when compared to the independent Ukraine. Even landlocked Belarus with no natural resources is doing better.

[distances]

Yes yes, sure. Just be Putin's puppet dictator and you'll get free oil. There's nothing worth discussing here.

[drysine]

Funny story, except Azerbaijan, which has its own oil of premium quality is doing worse than Belarus[0]. Still better than the Ukraine, but anyone is doing better than the Ukraine.

[0] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locat...