[gtowey]

Because the premise that the singularity is just around the corner is far less likely than the premise that artificial intelligence is a lot harder than most people think it is and we're not that close.

Especially because the companies telling us the first premise is true are the companies which need investors to prop up their business.

I mean, it is possible the first premise is true, but the absolutely bonkers credulity in it really mystifies me. It is an incredibly unlikely thing to be true and we should be demanding quite extraordinary evidence to back it up. But based on some neat tricks by current LLMs, some people are all in.

[mlyle]

> > And that shape tells you that _at some unknown point in the future_ progress will slow (but likely not stop). Now back to the point, what reason do you have to believe progress will stop soon?

> Because the premise that the singularity is just around the corner is far less likely than the premise that artificial intelligence is a lot harder than most people think it is and we're not that close.

I see no claim that the singularity is around the corner, so I'm not sure your reply meets the comment that you're replying to.

It seems overwhelmingly likely that AI will be significantly more capable 6 months from now than it is now. Even if there's little progress in the models, just the rate at which tooling is moving will make a big difference. And models still seem to be improving, so I'd be a little surprised if we hit a model brick wall.