[SlinkyOnStairs]

You misunderstand. I'm not saying that Reasoning/Agentic systems aren't better.

I'm saying they're not an advancement in the tech in the way GPT 1 through 3 were. They're a different kind of improvement.

And as such the rate improvement cannot just be extrapolated into the future.

[p1esk]

GPT1 through GPT3 advancement were exactly like using more Ethernet cables in parallel.

All interesting conceptual breakthroughs came after GPT3: RL and reasoning being the main ones.