[bluefirebrand]

It's possible, but I think unlikely. For one thing, most managers can't really tell who is above or below average. We still in 2026 have "lines of code" as a usual metric for judging the quality of a dev.

So how do you think that will play out in reality?

[wiremine]

I'm not sure, but it might be recursive: above-average managers can tell the difference, and so we won't need as many below-average managers. But this requires above-average leadership, and the market will need to reward those organizations.