> Most people don't know, that "prediction markets" are acutally based on an idea by DARPA in 2002, after 9/11/2001.
Did they then use a time machine to go back to the mid-90's to pass the idea to Jim Bell so he could take the fall for some of the less attractive possible outcomes?
Yeah. People have put together a Prediction Market Database [1] (in a Google sheet), I think it's pretty well sourced and shows a good number of both real money and play money prediction markets from before 2002.
Did they then use a time machine to go back to the mid-90's to pass the idea to Jim Bell so he could take the fall for some of the less attractive possible outcomes?