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by maxglute 36 days ago
FDI itself is not enough. Modern national champions happen because state protectionism, typically under autocratic industrial policy (Asian Tigers), in combination with FDI. Hyundai was suppose to be Honda, you can throw TSMC in there. There's no sign Poland is going to get national class to world class champions, because democracies more easily captured and EU forbids tier of subsidies and protectionism that enable giants that compete with established incumbents. Is there any strategic Polish company on road to being world class?

On paper countries can build giants without FDI, but can't build giants without industrial policy Poland can't adopt due to EU trap (which basically designed to keep west euro industrial incumbents on top) and (IMO) if Poland ever tries, FDI tap going to stop. Structurally Poland is periphery not core, allowed to prosper but not overtake, which puts ceiling. Exception being defense, but even then stepping on west euro toes.
2 comments
generic92034 36 days ago
EU trap? How far do you think Poland would have come economically without access to the EU common market and without EU subsidies?
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maxglute 35 days ago
Not far, but the EU trap is about the ceiling, it's about how far Poland can potentially go.
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generic92034 34 days ago
If there is such a ceiling (clearly, I doubt it, seeing many of the main German industry leaders going down or offshore, so there is plenty space to grow), it is not of the EU's doing. It it about money and the advantages large incumbents have in our version of market capitalism.
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maxglute 33 days ago
DE still collects checks from global champions offshoring. Offshoring "fine" as long as money flows back to HQ. Allowing peripheral competitors to take your rent on the other hand less fine. The ceiling is EU's doing - it's EU legislation which does not allow member states to adopt the tier of subsidies/industrial policies to build competitors that can rival EU incumbents. Which can lose out to competitors with greater leverage (i.e. US), but unlikely to Poland. Of course cannot say it's impossible, but we have not seen case in modern economic history where global strategic champions arise without massive subsidies/protectionism, the type EU blocks within bloc to lock in existing hierarchy.
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jmalicki 36 days ago
The comments have already mentioned CD Projekt and elevenlabs which I would call world class companies even if not huge scale.
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maxglute 36 days ago
> strategic Polish company

Keyword being Strategic, i.e. industrial pillar industries that sustains entire local industrial chains / ecosystem.

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Saline9515 35 days ago
Cd Projekt made around 200M$ revenue last year. It's a small company by world standard.
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jmalicki 35 days ago
Small, but exemplary, and given the context of the post and arguments, developing exemplary leading companies is a sign that Poland is developing a deep base beyond mere outsourcing, even if there are a small number and they're not huge yet.

It's like comparing a 6-year-old soccer player to Lionel Messi - you're looking at early signs of development, and the progress to getting there, not saying Poland is already there, but there are positive signs it is on that path.

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Saline9515 35 days ago
CD Project is a good video game studio, but is unlikely to become a large company - their revenue has been flat for the last 4 years.
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