[jakozaur]

The story is longer: Poland was the first country to make a remarkable peaceful transition from a bankrupt, failed Soviet satellite state. The shock therapy, plus NATO and EU aspirations, paved the way.

It is a story of a country that made a lot of the right decisions along the way. Managed to keep consistent high growth, not a pony trick or boom/bust mode.

Poland should be a role model for many other countries.

Recommend a book: https://www.amazon.com/Europes-Growth-Champion-Insights-Econ...

And Noah's blog post: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-polandmalaysia-model

[anikan_vader]

>> Poland was the first country to make a remarkable peaceful transition from a bankrupt, failed Soviet satellite state.

In what sense? Czechia is richer per capita. Almost all of the former Soviet satellite states in eastern Europe have had largely peaceful (since 1991) sustained economic growth. The exceptions are exactly those countries which continue to have Russian troops occupying portions, namely Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova.

[jakozaur]

Poland's first partly free election was on 4 June 1989, preceded by the roundtable negotiations.

The protests in Czechoslovakia came later, called the Velvet Revolution, from 17 to 28 November 1989. In June 1990, Czechoslovakia held its first democratic elections, a year after Poland.

Poland paved the way for the whole of central and eastern Europe. The Round Table produced the negotiated-exit template that Hungary built on in its own talks that summer, and that Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and the Baltics drew on as their regimes fell within months.

And it did so from the deepest macroeconomic crisis of any of the satellite states: hyperinflation running into the hundreds of percent by late 1989, an unresolved sovereign default from 1981, and chronic shortages.

Since then Poland has converged fastest of any of them. From a low base it has climbed to the upper-middle of central and eastern Europe by GDP per capita PPP, overtaken Hungary, and is now closing on Czechia and Slovenia.

[somenameforme]

I'm curious what this means in real terms from the perspective of a Pole.

GDP/capita is often a relatively useless metric in modern times. For instance Ireland has one of the highest GDP/capitas in the world -- around 50% higher than the US. But that's because of economic games with their working as a tax haven to enable corporations to avoid paying taxes to their home countries. It doesn't translate to anything for the average Irishman.

[scyzoryk_xyz]

As a Polish millenial the perspective is a rollercoaster. In one way the transformation of absolutely everything over and over and over is mind blowing in a positive way. OTOH we're also all paranoid running on what feels like a never ending hamster wheel of inflation, raises and mortgages. And then Gen-Z's feel straight get up locked out of everything.

We visit western European countries and it's like WTF it's cheaper here?

The multi-generational spread is wild - my boss remembers being raised in 80's scarcity culture verging on 2-3rd world hunger. But our entry level employees are running around demanding everyone to be up to date with everything they see and hear in these little glowing rectangles. It's like two separate progressions have been superimposed on top of each other.

[dhosek]

Just as a quick note, the “second world” would have been the Eastern Bloc countries, so by definition, living in Poland in the 80s would have been 2nd-world conditions.

[disgruntledphd2]

Thank you! Sometimes I feel like I'm the only one who remembers this. For example, Ireland was a third world country because (theoretically) we were non aligned.

[trhway]

>We visit western European countries and it's like WTF it's cheaper here?

Warsaw is the only place in Europe where a casual search out of curiosity brought 15-20K euro/month developer positions.

[mjtk]

Vibecession at country scale. Seems like growth feels like instability for many citizens.

[daliusd]

Same story in Lithuania

[pseudohadamard]

The Baltic states are a pretty odd mix, Estonia could be any western European country while Latvia next door still feels in places like the Red Army has only just pulled out. It was quite a jolt going from one to the other.

Mind you since we'd started from Russia both of them looked pretty good in comparison, that place was dire.

[sam_lowry_]

Also economic inequality is quite differently shaped across ages

People over 60 are poor, 40..60 are a mixed bag, 20..40 are struggling to keep up.

[rayiner]

> GDP/capita is often a relatively useless metric in modern times.

"Often" is the wrong modifier. GDP/capita aligns very closely with material standard of living for the median person. If you look at the GDP/capita growth in India and China since 1990, or South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, since 1950, that reflects very real increases in material standards for ordinary people.

There's two, relatively well-understood situations where GDP/capita isn't reflective:

1) Countries where the economy is dominated by resource extraction or tourism 2) Tax havens

But it's pretty easy to tell whether one of these exceptions applies. It doesn't in the case of Poland, which has a broad, diversified economy with a high level of industrial production.

[somenameforme]

In the past GDP/capita used to track pretty strongly with most of all desirable metrics. So then it became the goal, and it started becoming heavily detached from those metrics - Goodhart's Law in action. For instance since 1979 in the US (first date this was measured by the Fed) real median wages are up about 14% [1] while real GDP/capita is up 118%.

And those values are even more detached than the inequity there makes clear, because for about 90% of that time wages were completely flat (and even declining) while GDP/capita kept booming up up and away. So the connection between the two has become very weak while in the past it was quite strongly connected. And that's just one random example - pick most of all those desirable metrics and it's a similar story. GDP just doesn't track with them so well anymore at all.

And when you try to compare between countries GDP becomes completely farcical as the ability to produce a zillion dollars of services doesn't translate, or even have much to do with, the ability to produce a zillion dollars of things.

[1] - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

[standeven]

Isn’t GDP pretty easy to boost with deregulation and government overspending, at least in the short term? Neither of which benefits the people.

[bobthepanda]

You can’t really keep that up over 35 years though, which is what Poland has achieved.

[philwelch]

Deregulation does benefit the people, at least if it's done in ways that lead to sustained economic growth.

[mejutoco]

> GDP/capita aligns very closely with material standard of living for the median person

GDP is an average, not a median, so it might align with the average person, not the median. The average/mean can hide many things (see Anscombe s quartet) which is one of the problems with GDP IMO.

[rayiner]

It depends what you’re using the data for. If you’re comparing across countries, or looking at a developing country over time, it’s a relatively small factor. The ratio between the average and the median isn’t that big even in the U.S. (about 1.3). Meanwhile, Poland’s GDP per capita has tripled since 2005: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?location....

[Ygg2]

When economy goes K shaped (only ultra rich or ultra poor with no in-between) GDP is good preidictor of how the ultra rich are fairing.

For everyone else a roulette wheel is a better measurement.

[rayiner]

No economy is K shaped. The vast majority of US income (78%) is earned by people outside the top 1%. It was as high as 90% during the bad economy of the 1970s. Since 1975, real GDP per capita has increased by a factor of 2.8. So the proletariat have 12 percentage points less of a number that’s 2.8 times bigger.

[felixg3]

Within a short time, especially since the EU accession, the development of Poland is just remarkable. I have personally spent a lot of time there and I think the quality of life, safety, access to healthcare, is excellent. Sure, it’s not perfect, but - I know, capital city bias, but I can’t think of a better place. Macro data, as imperfect as they are, reveal a dramatic trajectory in Life expectancy, HDI, while the gini-coefficient remained relatively stable.

[pipes]

I'm Irish. Well northern Irish. The Republic Ireland seems a lot richer than when I was growing up in n. Ireland. Ireland is the second biggest exporter of software in the world now. I'm pretty certain the tax paid by both corporations and their well paid staff definitely translate to something for the average Irish man. Even if he thinks it doesn't.

[wooger]

US tech companies that 'on paper' export software from Ireland as a tax loophole make it technically the 2nd biggest exporter of software in the world.

There are more people in single 2nd tier city metro areas in other European countries than in the whole of Ireland.

[kazinator]

The protests in Czechoslovakia came earlier, in 1968! The Soviets rolled in the tanks in response.

Poland had a mass solidarity movement rise up in 1980. The USSR didn't decide to send in the military then; they were lucky.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_reaction_to_the_Polish_...

There was a lot of unrest in Poland, and general strikes. Martial law was imposed.

If you were an immigrant from Czechslovakia in a refugee camp in Austria at around that time, you'd be learning to speak Polish.

[cromka]

So 1990 Eastern Europe freed itself thanks to... 1968 Czechoslovakia?

[kazinator]

Of course not (but we can't say it didn't matter, either).

[keiferski]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1956_Pozna%C5%84_protests

[legulere]

Even earlier in Germany: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_German_uprising_of_1953

Here in Germany they very often talk about the importance of what happened in Poland for the reunification

[card_zero]

I'm enjoying the way this dispute reflects on the USSR. We were the first to try to escape! No, we were the first, years before that! No, you're both wrong, it was us!

[eduction]

Self glorifying nonsense. Gorbachev ALLOWED Poland to not get crushed. You think Poles were any braver in 1989 than the Chinese people who laid down their lives in Tiananmen? You think your solidarity was in any way superior to what they did, what the Hungarians and Czechs did decades earlier? You succeeded due to good timing and because Gorby was your ultimate overlord rather than Deng Xiaopong. Poles should go thank him.

Stephen Kotkin says this much better than I ever could. https://youtu.be/0tXvLJXkFFg?t=295&si=26yINqxrcSdOUxCv

[alkyon]

In chronological sense.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutions_of_1989

Round Table agreement, which paved the way to the partially free elections in 1989 won by the opposition, preceded similar events in other countries by several months including Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia and the Fall of Berlin Wall.

[mmooss]

The OP shows the per capita GDP growth of the former Soviet bloc states since 1990. Poland is #1 at 252%, Romania #2 at 148%; Czechia is last at 72%.

[vkou]

Ukraine didn't have Russian troops occupying anything but the leased Crimean bases before the war started (and I do count the start of the war as being immediately after Euromaidan)... Yet in 2013, it was the second poorest country in Europe. (Ahead of Moldova, which has been occupied for decades, but significantly behind Belarus and Bulgaria)

[wiseowise]

> Ukraine didn't have Russian troops occupying anything but the leased Crimean bases before the war started

Do you seriously believe Russians would leave Crimea if Ukrainians didn’t renew the lease?

[vkou]

Whether they were going to leave or not if it wasn't renewed decades down the road isn't particularly relevant to why Ukraine's economy was in the pits. It's not like those sailors were 'foraging' the countryside for their upkeep.

"It's much like Russia but with no oil or gas" was the better explanation for why it wasn't doing well. It's also why Belarus isn't topping the development indexes.

[brnt]

They didn't need troops till Maidan. They had the government already.

[drysine]

Orange revolution in 2004 changed the Ukrainian government.

[Eldt]

And how long does weeding out corruption take?

[tasuki]

> Czechia is richer per capita.

Are you sure about that? I'm Czech but have lived in Poland for 8 years and visit regularly. Poland used to be way poorer than Czechia, but these days it looks the other way around. I think the stats are either lagging behind or computed wrong. Note I regularly visit both the cities and the countryside in both Czechia and Poland.

Btw, the article has a "GDP per capita growth in post-communist countries" table, with Poland at the top and Czechia at the bottom.

[aussiegreenie]

>Czechia is richer per capita

This is a very bad measure of anything, especially wealth.

[BeetleB]

Romania?

[xdennis]

Romania is still occupied by Russia. Unlike with Germany, where the East and West reunited, Romania failed to reunite with Eastern Moldova (Western Moldova is in Romania) because of Russian interference in the 1990s. The Russians invaded Transnistria (which was never Romanian) and expanded a bit west. So the Russians still occupy part of the land that is by right Romanian and still have political influence in R. Moldova. That is slowly being eroded.

[arewethereyeta]

> Romania is still occupied by Russia? I'm a Romanian and never heard such nonsense. We have nothing to do with what's going on in Eastern Moldova nor with people from that region. We do not consider them Romanians at all. While a lot of them come here and integrate well, as a general feeling in these areas, they are more russians than romanians and I assure you, should it be to a vote, we wouldn't join.

And btw, Romania is not occupied by Russia stop spreading such nonsense.

[jgtrosh]

To those who do not know about this subject: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unification_of_Moldova_and_Rom...

(My external barely informed understanding is that proponents of unification are largely right wing nationalist, pro-Russians call for a unification with Bessarabia while ceding Transsinistria to Russia; Moldovans are largely against union in polls.)

[nixon_why69]

Why wouldn't the story be that they succeeded despite the shock therapy? Honestly asking, I am not an expert on Polish economy, but I heard bad things.

Maybe all of those hardworking people could have done even better with a different macro strategy?

[mrkaluzny]

The rapid and successful conversion to market economy was the main reason we are where we are. Human cost was extremely high, crime went up quickly and lots of money was lost. I'd argue this was corrected by joining EU and by adjusting the plan to polish reality.

What made it a success was also the social capital in Poland, a lot of people worked extremely hard to pull it off, but still high unemployment was alleviated only by joining EU and people leaving to find employment elsewhere

[goobatrooba]

Not to forget tens of billions in EU subsidies. Not trying to diminish the polish efforts, but not every country gets this opportunity of massive, predictable transfers without much conditionality.

I wonder how far Poland would be without the years of PiS corruption.

[wrzuteczka]

I think you got it backwards.

Over the last 20 years, the SLD govt used to literally sell new legislation for bribes, PO (currently in charge of Poland) literally has right now a guy in their ranks who has likely stolen 100s of millions PLN from a public company, but is the prime minister’s BFF so the prosecutor canceled the investigation. The stuff PiS has done is nothing compared to those.

I actually think that the Anti- Corruption Bureau that PiS founded is one of the core reasons Poland was able to mostly weed out the post-Russian corruption (corruption is unfortunately the main export of Russian culture, every country they invaded ended up extremely corrupt).

[rasz]

Yes. Piss is holier than holy and didnt run Justice Fund as its own private piggy bank stealing for PIS election campaigns and surveillance software to intercept PO politicians private communications. There is no reason whatsoever for former PIS prosecutor general last 7 months hiding in Hungary together with his co criminal deputy Marcin Romanowski who has been hiding there for almost two years. Former state-owned Oil giant Orlen CEO also spend some time hiding from prosecution in Hungary, what a coincidence.

Did we forget about pushing for illegal mail elections? Using state-owned companies filled with PIS politicians to finance bribes and promoting PIS? $25 billion pumped out straight to PIS coffers.

[wrzuteczka]

It’s still nothing compared to the other things I mentioned.

[exitb]

Notably, only five years have passed between last Russian solders leaving Poland and the country joining NATO. Quite a speedrun.

[cromka]

And it was about the only period when Russia was so week it did not meddle internationally. Putin ascended to power in 1999.

[BrandoElFollito]

It was mainly thanks to two men who decided to give up their future: the prime minister Tadeusz Mazowiecki and the minister of finances Leszek Balcerowicz.

Today's politicians look like angry toddlers in a sandbox in comparison.

There ware other great people of course, but these two paid the price.

[aksH21]

Solidarność was funded by the West, though you may credit Polish/Eastern European capture of US foreign policy and the Polish Pope, too.

It is true of course that they were the most persistent and brave. I don't think it would have been possible in East Germany for example, which ran a tighter regime until Poland managed the peaceful revolution.

[goobatrooba]

I'm sure that some people claim that but I would be grateful for evidence that solidarnosc received significant material support from the west.

[mmooss]

> The story is longer: Poland was the first country to make a remarkable peaceful transition from a bankrupt, failed Soviet satellite state. The shock therapy, plus NATO and EU aspirations, paved the way.

The story is told in much more detail in the OP. What do you feel is missing from it?

[chistev]

I just bookmarked that book. Thanks