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by vonneumannstan 47 days ago
>I think the rest of us should rest easy knowing that LLM's can't (and maybe were never meant to) tackle the tacit-knowledge-filled, human-system-centric, ambiguously-defined-problem-space jobs most mortals work.

A Statement all but guaranteed to look incredibly short sighted by 2030.

1 comments

The past few years has seen a great rise in casuals reminding us of AIs limitations only to be proven wrong in 6 months. I don't think we're close to AGI, but in 2 years I've gone from AI doubter to AI convert. It's not perfect, but I don't need it to be.

The real question to me is if the system can pay for itself. Economics are racing against efficiency gains and it's anyone's guess which wins.

what are those limitations we're talking about? seems most of those the original limitations that people complained about were resolved through workarounds like tools and skills which are more software-engineering than llm advancement.
Long-term planning, context poisoning, task length reliability, etc. Improving all the time but certainly still constraints.
The biggest limitation I see right now is weak “theory of mind”. It’s why even though AI can generate very decent exposition, it sucks at generating narrative. This also reflects in weak performance at humor, art, and even shows up in exposition (resulting in reactions akin to “cool story bro, but why should I care?”)

It’s why people can identify AI writing even if it doesn’t contain any LLMisms. AI’s generate text that almost looks like a human wrote it, but that no human would ever actually write - when we try to imagine what kind of person would have wrote this, we draw a blank - no one we’ve ever met would have written it like that - not even any archetype we’ve ever built an internal model for.