[state_less]

The idea that we're still trading dark fiber from 2001 is an old narrative right? I guess it is still floating around. But, we're in a second big fiber build out for not only residential, but also to connect all these new data centers. Could there be some demand oscillation for silicon? Sure, but overall deep learning is not some passing fad even if someone gets too far out over their skis and over buys. So far Big Tech has increased spend 3 years in a row and next year they'll spend more than this year. Demand has evidently not let up for AI services, we still need more silicon.

I doubt consumers will regret these compute purchases in 3 years, my 3 year old GPU is still holding value, actually increased in value, and I use it more now than ever.

I did predict or expect that if oil went to $150 we'd be in recession territory, currently hovering below that level and folks are feeling the squeeze and aren't happy. Things could get worse or better, tough to tell, but I think silicon demand is more or less secular and will do relatively well in a variety of macro conditions.

[jandrewrogers]

The dark fiber from the dotcom era is approaching the end of its life expectancy. Contracts for leasing dark strands reflected that. Most of it likely still has useful life left that the owners will want to monetize but it might change how it is used.

[robocat]

> too far out over their skis

Bad metaphor. Not being forward enough is a common mistake. When learning, you may want to make yourself _feel_ like you're too far forward. We can commonly think we're too far forward when actually overall we're still too far back. Teaching it is very hard.

Although it is dependent on your style of skis (e.g. carving) and style of skiing (powder, racing, cruising).

For me, it is very rare that I go too far forward (I began with a leant back style and I haven't rectified that after many years of skiing). I try to prioritise fun over ability.

[aftbit]

This seems like it would be easy to structurally solve - big tech could make strategic partnerships with 5 to 10 year horizons with the very fabs in question. If they promised to spend a flat or growing $X on silicon (without easy contract cancellation) over the next decade, then the risk would be entirely on the tech companies and not on the fab companies. Of course, there's always bankruptcy to worry about, but that's less of a threat for Google and Apple than it is for OpenAI or NVIDIA.

The fact that we _haven't_ seen such deals be made, and that ~50% of new datacenter builds have been quietly cancelled[1], suggests to me that we're dealing with paper demand more than true sustained demand.

1: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...