[aspenmartin]

Well I’m not offended but it sounds like you may not be paying attention? Do you know the capital outlay that has gone into infra buildouts? several people here have described “6 months” of AI mania—-the fact that people are saying 6 months is exactly the point. Development has been going on since 2010s. All of the “boosters” as HN likes to say have been saying “hey this thing is huge and the performance trends are startling, get ready” and people then say “that’s psychotic I can’t even get Siri to understand my name”. Sure enough, 6 months ago we hit a performance inflection point where “madness” has begun. That’s just when you started paying attention, the rate of change has not stopped. Pretty easy to predict what happens next…

[taneq]

Maybe it’s time to ask Siri again, “hey are you smart yet or are you still just a script?”

If she says “I’m sorry, I don’t know how to are you still just a script” then I have my answer. :P

LLMs are remarkable these days but they’re still missing a some essential insight. I’m far less confident now, though, that this will require another big breakthrough and not just a combination of tweaks.

[bigtex88]

Siri is not the same as an LLM in this context but thank you.

[aspenmartin]

I accept your skepticism is all I can say but just consider we’re not talking about the most important numbers and topics in this conversation. We have a lot of mileage left in the current stack. Nothing is plateauing though you wouldn’t know it if you read HN.

[nothinkjustai]

What does Siri have to do with anything?

Honestly your posts read like satire. You’re treating LLMs like a religion and the release of Opus 4.6 as like some type of rapture. Idk man, if it’s some sort of bit or false flag thing well played, if not…well good luck.

[aspenmartin]

What exactly do you find satirical?

- obviously LLMs are not a religion I’m using it to illustrate a point

- 5-6 months ago was when agent perf hit a meaningful inflection point where adoption has exploded. It’s why people in this thread reference “the past 6 months” whether or not they realize we’ve been on the same path for years now

So to overextend the metaphor, opus 4.5 was really kind of the right fit for the rapture.

I mean no need to take any of this seriously, I have worked on benchmarks and measurement in an AI lab professionally for over 4 years now, in software and data science for 8 and before got a PhD in Astro, like I’m not some sort of armchair person with no understanding of this field. Though I do find it entertaining when my background in an AI lab is people’s favorite reason to dismiss this :)

I find that when people find stuff like this satirical they often don’t really know the industry or underlying mechanics that well. Not saying that’s you but as ridiculous as I apparently sound to you, do consider that sounds even more ridiculous to not understand the tsunami that is coming right for you…