[screamingninja]

Have you heard of the Sucker Effect? Your gains come solely from the those who made the wrong bet. There is no inherent value generation in the prediction markets unlike the stock markets. Yes, there is money to be made, but at a net loss to the society, so many would not consider these bets "opportunities" but rather "gambling".

[AureliusMA]

There is no value generation in trading stocks either beyond IPO, as stocks are then simply second-hand markets and can be completely irrational. The main value is just like the lottery : entertainment, excitment.

[tsunamifury]

There is strong signal that companies then listen to and act on. The market serves (whether you like it or not) as the final board of executives.

[tablarasa]

There is value beyond IPO- companies continue to sell ("issue") shares on the public market as a way of generating cash. They also buy back shares when with excess cash, usually when the market value is low but sometimes, irrationally IMO, when it is high. They also use this as an incentive-backed compensation pool. The relative value of these is debatable, but I don't think it is correct that post-IPO public shares are just traded between third-parties making short-term bets. Happy to be corrected.

[rmb177]

Define "net loss to the society." Society is just a group of individuals. If my counter-party was a democratic aide hedging that they wouldn't have a job come January, was it a real loss for them? The money I've earned on prediction markets has certainly allowed me to spend more money in the economy. What if a trump supporter watching the market saw what a longshot it was and decided not to go to the Capitol on January 6th?

[benced]

The value generation is for passive observers: it is theoretically more informative to be told that there is a y% chance of x from someone with a financial incentive to be right.

(also, we allow plenty of zero and negative sum interactions in society. I don't know why this is special.)

[DesaiAshu]

This one is regulated as a commodities derivative rather than gambling

Call a spade a spade, rather than calling it a club because the president’s son is on the board

Corruption is corruption.