[TheRealDunkirk]

> the larger economy hasn't failed

It's only a matter of time until Social Security starts to fail, right after we've paid all the boomers their full benefits (and just in time for me to be eligible), and then they'll have to implement "austerity measures." After that, groceries, gas, housing, health "care," and higher education will have fully broken the middle class (it's already broken me, and I have a good job and a paid-off house), and the economy (sans imaginary AI investment bullshit) will be exposed as failing. AI (such as it is) will hammer entry level jobs, and tax revenues will be impacted by this. At the same time, we're going to have to start some sort of menial UBI, but with what money, I have no idea. Service on the national debt just surpassed military spending last year. When the shit hits the fan in another 10 years, the country will have to either go to war to reset the accounting ledgers, or actually put themselves on a budget. Which do you think will happen?

Given the numbers and rates we can see at present, all economic activity right now is a process of moving deck chairs on the Titanic. Sure, it hasn't failed, but it is an absolute certainly that it WILL. It's just a question of WHEN, and it's relatively soon. We have no adults in Washington. It's clear they're ALL just trying "get theirs" before it all comes crashing down.

[bpt3]

When social security "fails" (which I would define as not paying out 100% of its defined benefits), the payment structure will be changed and that's the end of it.

If paying for basic living expenses and higher education for your kids has "broken you", then you either didn't have the good job you thought you did or you aren't making very sound financial decisions (or both). Given that you own a paid off house, I suspect the actual issue is a complete lack of perspective on your part as to how well you have it.

In short, the economy is not failing, you're just a doomer.

[yieldcrv]

Everything you described is future liquidity and who has it, but whether that’s the economy or enough of it to make a statement is unclear to me

And you wrote this all as a reaction to people trading on prediction markets? Markets that show velocity of transactions in a new, novel and growing way, which is the goal of our economies - to discourage hoarding in favor of transactions

Being a permabear doomer has nothing to do with the existence of prediction markets and other people’s participation in them

[prepend]

Social security will fail slowly by reducing its payout a little at a time.

It can’t really fail all at once unless the US government dissolves. And people have been losing money on that bet for 250 years.

Luckily, if someone thinks the USG will actually fail, it’s really easy to trade on that possibility.