[hgyyy]

I think OAI and Anthropic will be ok for a year or two. But after that If they still continue to earn revenues from selling tokens to firms/software engineers they will be in serious trouble.

The American firms are not demonstrating escape velocity and as long as china offers something somewhat comparable and offers it at a very low price to compensate for any difference in quality, they will not be generating enough in cash flows to finance reinvestment. I highly doubt they’ll be able to continue raising external financing for numerous periods from here on out - they gotta start showing strong financials and that they are running away from the open source models.

[LeFantome]

The performance gap will likely close as Chinese hardware improves. This is happening very rapidly.

Already DeepSeek v4 is being hosted on Huawei Ascend 950. What do you think those cost relative to NVIDIA gear?

[morpheos137]

I wouldnt put it past the US gov to ban foreign models. they tried to ban tiktok. what is being demosrrated here is silicon valley can not withstand a competitive market.

[LeFantome]

Good luck banning Open Source models.

Not only that but other countries are very unlikely to follow suit, so it is just a straight-up productivity tax on the US.

[morpheos137]

Yeah see the Nvidia china us gov self own. The assumption seems to be 1.4 billion people in a middle income country are dependent on 300 million for tech.