[_alternator_]

By definition it's a bit of a lagging indicator, unless we assume that all these folks have better access to inside information than the rest of us. Given that I was well aware of, for example, the likelihood of a Covid pandemic well before a bunch of rich people flew to New Zealand, it seems likely that CNN is gonna be a better gauge.

[riffraff]

I think the point is exactly that some people do have better information for wars.

In COVID's case nobody knew how governments all over the world would react and how bad the situation would get (and rich people weren't particularly affected anyway) but for wars we do have regular insider trading happening because it's easy to know more or less exactly "there is going to be an attack".

[noworld]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-special-forces-won-409k-bet...

Another indicator we could track.

[elzbardico]

Just because they flew to New Zeland at time D, it doesn't mean they were not aware of the situation in time D - x.

[_alternator_]

Correct. But this indicator is "when do the vast majority of wealthy people actually take to the air?" Which means it's 'belief' lagged by however long it takes them to get in the air. And the fact is, most wealthy people dont actually have particularly good inside information. Even if a small percent do, this indicator won't see it.

We will all know from the news that something really bad is about to happen before this indicator goes high. Polymarket is a way better indicator.

[elzbardico]

You're assuming normal events, that usually follow some deterministic logic. May I remind you that we have Donald Trump on the white house at the present moment.