[SequoiaHope]

We’re already seeing huge progress in humanoids coming from china. The big problem is software and world understanding, but the data collection from today’s humanoids and the rush to capitalize on their potential now that manufacturing their form is largely solved (save for hands) will see these problems overcome.

I expect it will be common to see them make deliveries in five years. Regular people don’t have to buy them for them to see widespread use.

[fontain]

Deliveries use hands because humans have hands, not because hands are a prerequisite for deliveries. Last mile is already “solved” with the little robots that drive around cities, no need for hands. Humans are useful because of our brains, because we can adapt to almost any situation for very little cost. Humanoid robots will remain a novelty until the cost is reduced far beyond what is plausible.

How do we define common? I’ll bet that in 5 years, the average person, even in somewhere like SF, will not see a humanoid robot during their every day life.

[joshuahedlund]

> Last mile is already “solved” with the little robots that drive around cities, no need for hands.

And yet we haven’t seen widespread adoption because they can’t handle stairs, steep slopes, streets without sidewalks, sidewalks with mud, or a hundred other real world challenges

[fontain]

We haven’t seen widespread adoption because they can’t hope to compete with human delivery drivers on cost. The cost to DoorDash and Uber Eats of a delivery driver is nothing upfront and a few dollars per delivery. The cost of a delivery robot is thousands of dollars upfront and more per delivery. Stairs aren’t even in the top 10 problems these robots face, they’re more than capable of delivering to most customers already.

[0xbadcafebee]

So, after they work out all the mechanical kinks (there are quite a few!), and after they work out all the software issues (again, many of them), the last problem is the biggest: production. Anyone can make a half dozen robots by hand. A hundred thousand is a completely different challenge. If they can't be made efficiently, their cost makes them more of a toy than a tool.

[SequoiaHope]

Have you seen the mass produced humanoids from China? They’re incredibly capable (again, save for hands which is a huge mechanical and software problem) and cheap.

https://youtu.be/mUmlv814aJo https://youtu.be/GzX1qOIO1bE

[nkrisc]

But what do they do?

I’ve only ever seen them performing choreographed routines or running races.

I’ve yet to see one doing something useful, so if you know of an example, I’d love to see it.

[SequoiaHope]

They need better software and they also need better hands. That will take time. But the commenter suggested manufacturing them will be a challenge and at this point it doesn’t seem like manufacturing will be the issue. As far as applications it seems to me like deliveries could be useful but I haven’t studied the space really, I’m just familiar with robotics. Maybe they will never be useful, but we will find out in 5 years when software has advanced.

[nine_k]

One of the Tesla's factories is winding down car production in a plan to convert to producing humanoid robots.

[0xbadcafebee]

I can buy China doing it, but not Tesla. They have a terrible track record of production, nothing even close to China's capability. In the past they've "developed" factories by taking huge government incentives and then basically doing nothing with them and pocketing the cash.

[oblio]

Is that because they're close to building robots or because Chinese EVs are eating their lunch and Tesla is flatlining?

[ReptileMan]

The line between moonshot and scam is thin and elon is known for doing jumping jacks on it.

[DonHopkins]

Explain again why you are so proud to be racist and easily manipulated.

[kibwen]

You need to recalibrate your bullshit sensor, because that statement from Tesla is clearly a farce.