[0xbadcafebee]

The bipedal robot thing is interesting, but there's only two places their cost makes sense: industry and war. After war makes them cheap to mass-produce (because an army of robots needs to be sustainable), then they'll be affordable. But they'll still be highly regulated, mostly as a political reaction to "losing jobs". It will probably take 30+ years for us to get to that point, because wars big enough to invest that much expense and manpower aren't common.

[Mars008]

Chinese Unitree already makes humanoids for $5K. Cheap enough for average american family to afford if it's useful. Several batteries and automatic replacement station will make it run 24/7 non-stop.

So, it terms of cheap capable hardware we are close. The problem is software and computing power.

[0xbadcafebee]

That is interesting, but it looks like the ones used for practical work are $30k. Still, they're targeting 20k units this year, which is a lot more production and a lower price than I imagined they'd be at by now.

[Mars008]

At least it's obvious we are close to have cheap mechanically capable robots. As soon as they get smart enough to be useful mass production will begin. We are almost there. (Un)fortunately China is leading here. With all production there it will be hard for US companies to compete. Especially outside of US market.

[ta20240528]

"Especially outside of US market."

A euphemism in polite company for: we'll ban them on national security grounds like we did with cars and phones.

[Mars008]

It's getting complicated here. Likely robots will be connected. This makes them perfect for spying and sabotaging. US cannot let China control them. Likely EU will do the same.

If not connected they can be used for numerous criminal activities. Stealing, selling drugs on the streets, etc. Armed robberies will be impressive.

So, my guess is robots will be connected, and this will be enforced in software and, may be, hardware. To the point that makes them almost unhackable. However it should be possible to take the frame and low level electronics (like motor controllers), and fit it with custom high level compute module and software. It will be just quite a lot of work. Still can be done by community of enthusiasts.

[nine_k]

Also medical / elderly care. A large market.