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by ubermonkey 51 days ago
Home debt has traditionally been seen as "good debt" for a bunch of reasons, but the big ones were that

(a) Home loans meant you were accumulating equity in an appreciating asset; and

(b) Mortgage interest was enough to allow most people to take a larger-than-standard deduction on income taxes; and

(c) The relationship between home prices and the equivalent rental market meant you could probably have a nicer place for a lower monthly payment in many markets.

These were generally slam-dunk truths for decades, but in the last 20 or so years they've stopped being true.

Home ownership isn't the guaranteed rocket-ship to wealth it once was. Appreciation is spotty, and varies wildly by market. My own view of this is that a lot of the gains are now baked in, and we're unlikely to see the kind of rise in value (in real dollars) that characterized, say, 1990 to 2015. Last year I sold a townhouse in Houston that I'd owned since 2000; I made money, but not the kind of upside that you wanna write home about.

Second, the tax law changes in Trump's first term dramatically raised the standard deduction -- enough so that we stopped itemizing. Part of this was that we were deep into the mortgage, so we were paying less in interest every year, but it's still a factor.

Third, rents may be high now, but home prices and interest rates are higher. When I bought in 2000, I went from renting a place for $1200 a month to OWNING a place at a bit under $2k (including taxes and insurance). This was with 20% down.

In my old neighborhood now, a nice rental is gonna be $2500-$3000, and housing is just unattainable. First, 20% now means probably $90K. Second, servicing the loan is going to be more than the rent, plus you've got another $450 a month in property taxes AND probably another $450 in insurance. And you've got to accumulate the $90K somehow while paying $2500 in rent. It's crazy. I have no idea how a young person who isn't making top-5% income can afford to buy without family help.

3 comments

> Last year I sold a townhouse in Houston that I'd owned since 2000; I made money, but not the kind of upside that you wanna write home about

Sure but you made money. If you had rented you would have lost that money. Renting only makes sense if the opportunity cost is higher, e.g. if you think the time value of the money that would be put into the down payment is higher in the markets than it would have been on a home. The other thing is mortgages are risk uncorrelated with major equities, usually at least. If there's a major recession your equities may be underwater for a few years. Your fixed rate mortgage will stay the same.

I'm saying it made sense for ME in 2000. I'm saying it's less obviously a good move for a 30 year old in 2026.

I have a strong suspicion that housing is due for a correction. Appreciation requires demand, and housing is now so expensive that Gen Z can't get on the ladder. That plus the looming Boomer die-off seems to point to a reversal of some housing gains.

I think housing in the US is just such a complicated space (Fannie/Freddie backstopped loans, ridiculous zoning and building requirements (FAR, setbacks, etc), environmental laws, varying property tax regimes, prevailing wage requirements for building in places, etc that it's just really difficult to understand. It's like a ridiculously complicated layered system of public and private regs and incentives that lead to very inscrutable results.
For me, owning your own home is partly about (mostly) paying it off before retirement, that way most people won't need a large retirement income to pay the rent. Also in my country, aged care asks for a large refundable deposit, for example 600k, if it comes to that.

It doesn't pay for the increased medical expenses near the end. But it can pay them off if sold after death.

Yeah, we're 56 this year and have no mortgage anymore. That's nice.
In california I've noticed lots of other things. prop 13 might make apartments pay less taxes than comparable condos, and condos also have HOA fees that can easily be $2k. I've even seen HOA fees on single family homes.
HOA fees on freestanding homes are VERY common, but they're generally not as high as places with shared walls.

It's only in condos and whatnot that they get crazy, though. My sister has $2500 in monthly fees associated with her fully owned condo in Philly, for example.