[ericzundel]

Also, a bet in these markets can be used to alter outcomes. That problem is caused by journalists reporting on market activity. It is treated (or percieved by readers) as if it reflects popular sentiment. Not only is it possible, it's actually relatively cheap to do things like corner the market, which in some cases is a lot less expensive than, say, a national TV ad campaign or running a scientific poll. Link to an older article: https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-politi...