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by Manuel_D 44 days ago
That link is a graph of battery electric storage, specifically. Mckinsey's projections have battery production continuing to accelerate, but the lion's share of the output dedicated to electric vehicles rather than grid storage: https://www.mckinsey.com/features/mckinsey-center-for-future...

Rather than just proclaiming the projection as "nonsense" it'd be a lot more productive if you shared an alternate projection and explained why it's methods are superior.
2 comments
dalyons 35 days ago
Data is starting to come in for 2026. Bloomberg just upped their prediction for 26 to 459gwh, which is already over the McKinseys most optimistic prediction for 26. And that’s before the Iran war. Bloomberg is missing the acceleration again, as they have every yeah before and keep having to correct upwards

https://www.energy-storage.news/bloombergnef-forecasts-158gw...

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ViewTrick1002 44 days ago
We of course can’t scale the grid portion of battery production as fast, or even faster than what we’ve done for BEVs?

And this also disregards that second life automotive batteries are incredibly hot on the market. All those TWh of batteries will become available for stationary use when the cars are scrapped.

Maybe not in western markets due to labor costs, but definitely in developing economies.

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Manuel_D 44 days ago
Used automotive batteries will be at the end of their life, with only a few hundred more discharge cycles until they've totally degraded.

Again, batteries scaling rapidly still doesn't hold match up with the scale of electricity demand. Again, a day's worth of global electricity consumption is 60,000 GWh. If there's one lesson to take away, it's this: be skeptical of people who talk about "scale" but neglect to actually give figures for that scale.

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ViewTrick1002 43 days ago
Why are you so afraid of renewables and storage?

All recent research coming are showing that BEV batteries last longer than expected in real world conditions.

You do realize that with 60 TWh we’re arguing about which decimal of 99.x% renewables the grid sits at?

We have in a few years scaled BEVs to 3 TWh per year. For grid duty batteries last 10-15 years. They are essentially the same batteries. Some have different form factors and whatever, but the core is the same.

This seems like grasping for the straws. Denying what’s infront of your eyes because we still need a few more years of scaling until it will happen no matter what, just assuming a continued buildout to saturation.

The grid works on timescales of decades. With the current deployment rate, no matter how you try to belittle it, we’ve already locked in a complete revamping of our grids.

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Manuel_D 43 days ago
Global battery deliveries in 2025 was 1,600 GWh, not 3,000 GWh. Of that, only 300 GWh was used for grid storage. Even projections a decade out to 2035 only predict that yearly battery storage deployment will be 800 GWh per year, the vast majority of battery production will be used for EVs rather than grid storage.

Again, there's a reason why people talking about batteries scaling don't put their numbers in the context of electricity demand. Even with the predicted exponential growth of battery production, the scale of electricity demand is on a different level.

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