[ryandvm]

Y'all remember COVID?

Everything shut down for 6 months and somehow miraculously the economy just sort of chugged along without much shock until about 2 years later when all the consequences of the COVID aid/stimulus came home to roost.

That is exactly how this will play out.

[mullingitover]

This isn't a pandemic, this is an energy crisis (and everything didn't 'shut down for six months' during the pandemic anyway). The historical events you'll want to look back on are the 1973, 1979, and 2022 energy shocks.

Combine them all: this is worse.

This isn't my hot take either, it's the opinion of the International Energy Agency[1].

Even if peace breaks out right now, the world economy is going to take years to recover.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/07/oil-prices-...