[atleastoptimal]

The valuation of a company != an approximation of how much it is contributing to the world, it's more of an estimated total future potential value, a market aggregate of demand for a piece of it.

I would say that the valuation of OpenAI et al exceeds a normal multiplier based on how much productivity it is contributing, but much of its value is based on the premise that the improvements to its models that have occurred in lockstep over the past 5 years won't just suddenly stop, and will continue for at least as long as the underlying compute for training scales.

All AI companies are selling are tokens, which aren't really a speculative asset in that they are consumed at the moment of inference. The question is whether this token of intelligence has a multiplicative effect on the applications towards which it is directed, which currently I believe many companies are seeing positive signals towards, which is why their revenues are accelerating so much so fast.