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by doctorpangloss 56 days ago
lots of words.

do you think per token prices will go up or down in the long term? will the price per task trend down or up?

what about the price of human labor?

3 comments

He is proving that the article is based on false information.

Prices going up or down depends on what labs decide and what users demand. Strong models being profitable at lower prices than what frontier labs offer is a fact.

not nearly as many words as Ed Zitron at least
The price of everything will go down. That is the beauty of the free market.
If the price of everything would go down it wouldn't be too concerning and everybody would be on board with the "beauty" of it.

What seems to actually be happening for white collar workers is that the price they can charge for their labor is dropping, but the price of their expenses (housing, food, gas) continues to rise.

In the absolutely free market price will go up a lot in the end. Because only one monopoly will exist by that time and it will jack up prices to the maximum tolerable level. And that level can be surprisingly high, because in every human activity there will be few willing to spend crazy amounts of money for practically anything they perceive valuable.
This kind of argument relies on odd definitions of "truly free" that boil down to anarchism, which isn't what anyone who advocates for a free market means.
So what does free market mean then?
To me at least, it means a market in which the basic rules of commerce are enforced but beyond that the government doesn't micromanage. For example, contracts are enforced, there's some basic truth in advertising laws, there's a trustworthy currency available, and all the other basics of civilization like "your competitor isn't allowed to murder you".

It's obviously a fuzzy scale.

In a free market like that it's not guaranteed that everything ends in monopoly. Actually mostly it won't. Monopolies that do occur are due to high costs of entry and are usually temporary.

In the market you have described we will inevitably end with a monopoly in everything, simply because you didn't mention anything preventing that. To avoid monopoly a much more micromanaging government is required. At minimum we would need a specialized bureaucracy department investigating monopolies, an advanced legislative and judicial systems enforcing such laws, a lot of regulation regarding common social good (e.g. you can't just undercut competitors by selling poisonous shit, and you can't just bribe law enforcement to do the same), we would need an overreaching borders/customs/tariffs to block companies from countries not concerned about selling poisonous shit to undercut foreign competitors. And the list goes on.

Basically free market advocates fail to see more that a single step in the complex web of dependencies, which tries to prevent neo-feudal monopolization of everything by unchecked, unelected and being above most laws and taxes, robber barons.

I dislike unnecessary bureaucracy and excessive government control as much as anyone, I was born in the authoritarian USSR after all and I do study history. But I fear neo-feudalism even more. I certainly have zero self-delusions about being in a "ruling class" in that potential free market dystopia.

The free market hypothesis is about resource allocation, nothing to do with price of everything going down