[port11]

I think your first paragraph is spot on, while the second is fairly incorrect. Hardware isn’t getting cheaper at a reasonable pace, and datacenters will keep depleting the market. State-of-the-art models are very, very far from being run on your own hardware.

[mullingitover]

> State-of-the-art models are very, very far from being run on your own hardware.

Still, the models will only get smarter and more efficient as the hardware gets cheaper. The timeframe may be debatable but the outcome really isn't.

[port11]

I could accept that the end result might be what you propose, but training models is getting tricky, running them more so, now that hardware is becoming pricier. The future might simply be a few feudal lords permitting you to run the best models on their equipment, and a few good open models that most will struggle to run.