[smt88]

Hormuz will be a problem for a long time. No one needs insider info to know that. The clowns in charge of our side of the war have made zero progress toward a resolution, and I don't know what will change. My fear is that this will continue for months and then the desperate US will start bombing cities.

[rigonkulous]

The US is bombing cities.

[redwood]

I think you underestimate the impact of a blockade on Iran's ports... Iran (and China) can maintain this posture for ballpark a month or so more before economic mayhem leads to another popular uprising. Time is in the US's hands up until the midterms and even then until January

[torlok]

I think you underestimate how little economic pressure matters when people are up against an invader who attacked amidst negotiations for bogus reasons, threatened total annihilation, and killed thousands, including a school full of children.

[nixon_why69]

And, to add on, how much more it matters when a very rich population didn't sign up for this at all and has no vested interest in "winning" at cost.

[redwood]

This is a population that absolutely despises their government. At least a very large percentage are in that category. I think you misunderstand the reality on the ground

[rigonkulous]

Iranians despise their government in about the same way that Americans despise their government - which is to say, both peoples got the government they deserve...

[nixon_why69]

What happens when Chinese flagged ships dare us to shoot them?

[redwood]

Do you mean Chinese military vessels? Or do you mean oil tankers? Oil tankers don't require you to shoot you simply commandeer.

If China were to involve its Navy in opening the straight that's exactly what Good outcome could look like

[nixon_why69]

Or it could be Really Really Bad Outcome, let's not be too flippant about this.

Out of curiousity, what's your good outcome from the Chinese sending destroyers to the gulf?

[redwood]

If the Chinese take on the burden of maintaining the free flow of shipping through the Gulf by stepping up as one of the key beneficiaries of said shipping that would simply be an appropriate burden sharing mechanism in my view.

[rigonkulous]

hmm .. imho .. the supply chain between Iran, Russia, and China is .. radically .. under-estimated in the equation by those states who have lost control over the worlds energy supplies.

It is more like the Western nations which cannot withstand another month of all this 'posturing' .. But there is some resilience to the idea that the Iran/Russia/China corridor is going to keep those nations relatively buffered from total disaster.

[pjc50]

US-backed Israeli forces are already destroying Lebanon: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mapping-the-destruction...

> Legal experts, analysts and local officials warn that the ultimate objective is the “emptying of residential geography”, carving out a depopulated “buffer zone” at the forward edge of the border that permanently prevents displaced residents from returning and establishes a violently enforced demographic reality on the ground.

That's called "ethnic cleansing" when carried out by other countries. Iran will not agree to peace while this is going on. Partly because that's Iranian proxy forces in there among all the civilians getting killed.