[matusp]

They are going to lose, the question is how much. I don't see Russians losing the territory they occupy right now, unless some black swan event happens. It remains to be seen how much more territory Russia is able to conquer until they lose their appetite.

[Gud]

The black swan event happened when they failed to topple the Ukrainian government in 2022, it’s just taking time.

There are no indications that Ukraine will lose this war.

[matusp]

> There are no indications that Ukraine will lose this war.

Apart from not controlling 20% of their territory?

[Gud]

This is a common story, that Ukraine has lost control over a vital part of it's country, and that is true.

But so has Russia, they also have lost control over their stuff, stuff that Ukraine are constantly blowing up.

Ukraine now have a capable long range offensive capability which allows them to strike deep into Russia.

Russias vital strategic assets are slowly depleting due to Ukrainian strikes, while Ukraine has better support from the rest of the world and are now in fact cooperating with some powerful nations across the world.

Russia are managing to advance a few square kilometer of territory per month? while losing expensive, hard to replace assets continuously.