[everyday7732]

If a random soldier bet me $32,000 that iran would be nuked tomorrow, I would believe them a lot more.

If you are a potential assassination target and you notice that a prediction market about your assassination has a sudden weird spike on a specific week, then you would likely take extra precautions in that week. After this incident, surely other world leaders and public figures are watching the prediction markets for exactly this.

The stated point of prediction markets is to aggregate private opinions into public predictions of the future. If you participate using classified information and influence those public predictions, then that's leaking that classified information. This is more true if the bets you make are large and the market is relatively small, then you will send a much more clear signal.