[gavanwoolery]

Good analysis. :)

As history would have it, one (or many people) shouting at the top of their lungs about the future does not have a huge impact on the future typically. He has a lot of interesting theories, and plenty of uninteresting or outright dubious ones (I suspect he is accelerating his own death with his over-the-top vitamin consumption). The people who make history are the ones who make it, not speculate about the future. Be wary of anyone who charges $25,000 an hour to make speeches - the line between oracle and scam artist is pretty thin these days.

[confluence]

Agreed. I call most of the singularity/live forever/AGI crowd "all talkers - no walkers".

But I keep a wary eye on them and their ideas from the periphery - lest I be on the the wrong side if they ever become right and start walking.

You never want to be on the wrong side of a wave - it really sucks.

[akiselev]

You should also be aware of what is happening behind the talkers. For example, look at Singularity Institute: while they are all talk as a foundation, the scientists and entrepreneurs who speak at the Singularity Summit (run by SI) are often at the forefront of the fields (or preceding fields) of the "all talkers" futurists.

Just look at genetic engineering: this is what the futurists used to talk about. Now in popular culture genetic engineering has a negative connotation due to Gattaca and eugenics and people talk often about bioethics and socioeconomics in this context. However, even now we can do in vitro fertilization while selecting against fertilized eggs that contain a specific gene (such as for Wilson's or Huntington's disease). The beginnings of genetic engineering are already here but it has snuck up on the public, just like technologies will sneak up from behind the futurists.