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by JumpCrisscross 60 days ago
> last I checked actual autonomy was still stuck in the perpetual R&D phase

I know plenty of people in Phoenix for whom it’s their main mode of transport. When I’m there or in San Francisco, it’s certainly mine. (And now, increasingly, in Miami, too.)

Waymo is here and it’s real and it’s so much better than Uber or taxis.
1 comments
fc417fc802 60 days ago
Sure, there's a very gradual, strictly limited, tightly controlled rollout. It's certainly not to the point where anyone would realistically design a city center around it. There's perhaps a small handful of companies globally that are currently prototyping the technology in a process that's shaping up to take a decade or longer to play out.

Even once things reach that point reworking an existing place would be a massive undertaking.

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JumpCrisscross 60 days ago
> not to the point where anyone would realistically design a city center around it

Sure. Neither is Phoenix's light-rail system, for the most part. These things take time to play out and gain buy-in.

Americans take about 34 million public-transit trips a day [1]. Assuming 25 rides per day, that's about 1.4 million self-driving cars to rival public transport's impact. Waymo has "about 3,000 robotaxis deployed nationwide" [2]. Doubling fleet size annually–Waymos and non-Waymos, though currently they have no peers–would get us to parity in less than 10 years. (A more-realistic 35% growth rate puts us around 20 years.)

The point of that excercise is to say that within 10 to 20 years, less time e.g. California's HSR or New York's Second Avenue Subway took to get online, we could see as many trips in AVs in America as we do on public transit of all types. That's close enough to start looking ahead to.

[1] https://www.apta.com/news-research/about-the-industry/public...

[2] https://www.axios.com/local/san-diego/2026/03/30/waymo-speed...

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jmalicki 60 days ago
> Sure, there's a very gradual, strictly limited, tightly controlled rollout

By city and ODD, but if you are in the area and your source and destination for the route are both within the ODD they are just as available as an Uber.

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