| Time for a beer obviously. :) I think sora backs my point actually - it didn’t pay and they killed it. As openAI aims at becoming the Facebook of AI (working model that has a permanent free tier) they are trying stuff out, and ultimately cutting product where it won’t pay. The numbers are big, but so are the customers and budgets - 15 mm/day in costs is like less than $0.02/day against 900m weekly active users. So, I. See a search for a product and differentiation but not economically weird behavior there. Anthropic has been 10x ing revenue yearly for a while now; the recent outages and cutbacks are a sign they bet that growth would slow too early — there’s more paying demand than they can fulfill right now and they are scrambling to buy data centers at premium rates. I haven’t done the math recently but I bet they’ve been spending right in the neighborhood of what you estimate: 2-3x last model revenues per leap. If you think you’ll get 10x usage, and make $6 on your $3 that feels good. As to open models from china - a few things: it’s politically advantageous to state you don’t have top tier nvidia, so it’s at least incentivized to understate compute. Also you’ll note these open weights models bench well but never quite seem to keep up — and are in a time lag. the popular explanation is data exfiltration from frontier labs— along with limited budgets inspiring efficiency oriented innovation. Anyway - I don’t see signs either company is cash strapped. I see signs they are racing to take market share on a product that is clearly like 1/6 to 1/8 the price to serve. |