[sigbottle]

Do you think it's akin to Ilya's [1] claim that next token prediction is reality? E.g. any deeper claims about the structure of that intelligence or comparing to humans?

To be clear, I'm 100% with you that "next token predictor" is stupid to call what these machines are now. We are engineers and can shape the capability landscape to give rise to a ton of emergent behavior. It's kind of amazing. In that sense, being precise about what's going on, rather than being essentialist (technically, yes, the 'actual' algorithm, whatever that even means, is text prediction), is just good epistemology.

I still think it's still a very interesting question though to ask about deeper emergent structures. To me, this is evidence of a more embedded cognition kind of theory of intelligence (admittedly this is not very precise). But IDK how into philosophy you are.

[1] https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever

[tptacek]

I try really hard not to think about this stuff because I've seen how people talk when they get too deep into it. My mental model, or mental superstructure, if you will, for all of this stuff is that we've discovered a fundamentally novel and effective way of doing computing. Computer science is fascinating and I'm there for it, and prickly when people are dismissive of it. I'm generally not interested in the theory of human intelligence (it's a super interesting problem I just happen not to engage with much), which spares me from a lot of crazy Internet stuff.