[kcplate]

I think that’s easy to say with the benefit of hindsight, but it seems to me that if the Iranians actually claimed they were 11 days away from a nuclear bomb during the prewar negotiations, it’s likely that the blockade first would not have been the right leading move.

Plus I believe that if you took the “11 days away” claim off the table I don’t think you accurately say that a blockade without the military campaign first would have been successful. Seems like we are in a “what came first the chicken or the egg” moment.

There is no doubt in my mind that a blockade with an intact Iranian navy would not necessarily look like this one.

[pazimzadeh]

> if the Iranians actually claimed they were 11 days away from a nuclear bomb during the prewar negotiations

Do you want to cite a good source for this? I think you're confusing having enough 60% enriched uranium for "11 bombs" with "11 days." If Iran was 11 days away then what was the point of the 12-day war last year? The first step would be not blatantly lying to the public

There's way more evidence that iran wasn't building a nuke than that they were:

Gabbard Says Iran Did Not Rebuild Nuclear Program After 2025 Strikes, Contradicting Trump (March 19, 2026)

From the then U.S. Director of National Intelligence https://time.com/article/2026/03/18/tulsi-gabbard-iran-nucle...

Iran was nowhere close to a nuclear bomb, experts say (March 11 2026)

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/iran-was-nowhere-...

[kcplate]

Like i said, that is what the administration (Witkoff) communicated. You can believe it or not, dispute it all you want, but the only opinion of any importance here is if they (either Iran, the administration, and frankly also Israel) believed it. In that case, it would be a dangerous thing for the US and Israel to ignore. Some would suggest impossible to ignore.

In my opinion if it’s not true and Iran communicated it…that would be a huge miscalculation by Iran.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACqWRsde4Ys

https://thehill.com/policy/international/5751330-witkoff-ira...

[watwut]

So, I will go out of my way to guess none of the mentioned parties believed it. Not Israel, not Iran and not even administration.

Also, per reports, it was looking like they will have a deal and Iran was making concessions. In both cases, they got bombed as they were making them

Witkoff is an untrustworthy idiot, negotiator unable to make deals.

[kcplate]

But what evidence do you have that none believed it? Sounds more like a subjective opinion rather than an objective one.

While I am not big on trust either, I am perplexed why “successful” negotiations would all of a sudden turn on a dime into a regional military event without a major catalyst— especially this close to midterms. This action was not politically helpful to Trump, was risky with his base, yet he did it anyway.

[vel0city]

> I am perplexed why “successful” negotiations would all of a sudden turn on a dime into a regional military event without a major catalyst

It can make a lot of sense when you understand the people involved are deeply incompetent, aggressively overconfident, and are surrounded by religious extremists saying this needs to be done for Jesus to come back.

I mean, after all, we bombed them months ago and nothing happened. We just nabbed another head of state with zero issues. Nothing bad is going to happen, we've got this! We'll just breeze in and crush them in a few days. Which we did, mission success, that's why we're all finished already, right?

[kcplate]

> It can make a lot of sense when you understand the people involved are deeply incompetent, aggressively overconfident, and are surrounded by religious extremists saying this needs to be done for Jesus to come back.

It was literally only until the last 5 words that I realized you were not talking about Iran. Funny how you ignore their part in all this.

However, I do want to take issue with the idea of “deeply incompetent”. That doesn't fit. They are either extremely competent at implementing their political agenda, or extremely lucky. Additionally this whole situation is contrary to the Trump administration’s normal playbook. If anything is consistent about Trump is that he panders to his base. This was the exact opposite. Why the change?

Thats the problem with assuming that this is Trump business as usual, its not…which is why I feel that there is a catalyst to go off their normal playbook.

[watwut]

> But what evidence do you have that none believed it? Sounds more like a subjective opinion rather than an objective one.

Both their subsequent behavior and their other statements.

> I am perplexed why “successful” negotiations would all of a sudden turn on a dime into a regional military event without a major catalyst

America and Israel wanted that war regardless of outcome of the negotiations. Iranians making concessions was going against actual goals of these two countries. Israel is actively sabotaging ceasefires and trying to enlarge their territory. American administration simply finds wars cool.

Also, by all reports, Witkoff and Kushner dont know much about nuclear. They are, basically, incompetent. They did not understood the things being give up. And before you call that false accusation, Russia complained about them not understanding their position too - and that is despite Witkoff and Kushner being on Russia side. They are able to bully their way to get some stuff they want - that works with some targets (Venezuela) and did not worked here nor in Ukraine.

> especially this close to midterms. This action was not politically helpful to Trump, was risky with his base, yet he did it anyway.

Majority of republicans support this war. And no one else matter to Trump. Hegseth, Trump and company were proud of starting this war. In their minds, it made them feel and look powerful, manly and strong. Republicans also think it makes them strong and manly.

Trump already made Venezuela into vassal dictatorship, threatened Greenland, threatened Canada, plans to attack Cuba is bombing fisherman boats and murdering sailors, builds concentration camps, supports Russian invasion, supported Orban ... it is all perfectly consistent.

Edit: And if you read or listen conservative analysists from defense background, their idea of ceasefire was "oh, well, we will continue bombing every few months". The war and bombing as something normal other countries are just assumed to accept as just a no big deal thing America does is fairly common ideology among them.

[vel0city]

The administration stated many times their nuclear stockpiles were already obliterated.

[kcplate]

Ok…but that is irrelevant to my point.

[vel0city]

How could they be 11 days away when we for sure obliterated it many months ago? It seems pretty central to the overall point.

[kcplate]

Are you suggesting there can be no difference between public rhetoric, the truth, and what might be said behind the closed doors of a diplomatic negotiation between adversaries? Especially with Trump?