[kube-system]

There's going to be a day when we look back at $200/mo price tags and say "wow that was cheap".

The breakeven at this price is 6 minutes of productivity per work day for an engineer making $200k.

[cheschire]

Okay, but then by that logic a person making only $20k would break even at about an hour.

Are you suggesting that someone making $20k should be spending $200/mo on Claude?

[kube-system]

I'm talking about the cost of labor.

If you pay someone $20,000 for labor, and they save 65 minutes worth of labor per day using a $200/mo Claude subscription, you are better off buying the Claude subscription.

[kuboble]

I think if you (a company) pay someone for labor, your labor cannot use personal subscription and you have to pay considerably higher api prices.

[hrimfaxi]

Most companies don't provide a corporate cell phone and have no problems with answering emails from a personal account. Can't have it both ways.

[kube-system]

You could it’s just against ToS.

But the specific numbers in my prior comments aren’t really relevant to my point. Adjust for whatever numbers you want.

[kuboble]

But I think they are relevant because you compare two numbers and one is much lower.

I've done some napkin math and CC code makes me more efficient when I pay 200/ month, but it wouldn't if I had to pay api prices

[kube-system]

Really? Are you using opus and letting it run for long periods? Curious as to what your workflow is.

The math is highly in favor of us using it at our company and we are paying API pricing. I don’t imagine there’s a lot of people using Claude without getting their money’s worth…?

[dragandj]

Who's gonna pay $20,000 for labor that can be done by anyone with a $200/mo subscription?

[kube-system]

Nobody, but that doesn’t exist yet. Currently these solutions enhance the productivity of workers, but it can’t quite replace them.

[echelon]

Everyone is arguing why I'm wrong or that I should have presented more data.

You've got the real insight with this claim.

This is the way the world is moving. Open source isn't even going where the ball is being tossed. There is no leadership here.

You're spot on.

If the cost to deliver a unit of business automation is:

    A. $1M with human labor

    B. $700k human labor + open source models

    C. $500k human labor + $10,000 in claude code max (duration of project)

    D. $250k with humans + $200k claude code "mythos ultra"

The one that will get picked is option "D".

Your poor college students and hobbyists will be on option "B". But this won't be as productive as evidenced by the human labor input costs.

Option "C" will begin to disappear as models/compute get more expensive and capable.

Option "A" will be nonviable. Humans just won't be able to keep up.

Open source strictly depends on models decreasing their capability gap. But I'm not seeing it.

Targeting home hardware is the biggest smell. It's showing that this is non-serious, hobby tinkery and has no real role in business.

For open source to work and not to turn into a toy, the models need to target data center deployment.

[hunterpayne]

You are assuming (imagining) a cost relationship which doesn't exist and when researched was the opposite of what you claim.

[brazukadev]

This is you playing with imaginary numbers, like Sam Altman is doing for a long time. It won't end well.

[echelon]

I'm willing to bet that this is the shape of the future.

Wanna bet on it?

[brazukadev]

It is not. Yeah I'm betting already. AI is changing software landscape but it won't be captured by openai and anthropic.

[kube-system]

Yeah, I don't wanna shit on open source, there will certainly be uses for all different kinds of models.

The real money in this market, though, is going to be made in the C suite, and they don't really care about the model. They don't care if it's open source, closed source, or what it is. They don't want to buy a model. They're interested in buying a solution to their problems. They're not going to be afraid of a software price tag -- any number they spend on labor is far more.

Labor is something like 50%+ of the Fortune 500's operating expenses -- capturing any chunk of this is a ridiculous sum of money.