[Lapel2742]

> Just because America is doing bad things doesn't mean China is good, or vice versa.

Of course not. When it comes to SOTA LLMs you have the choice between two bad options. For many, choosing the Chinese option is just choosing the lesser of two evils (and it's much cheaper).

[eloisant]

Why people always dismiss the European option?

Mistral is right here, their models are in-between the cheap to run Chinese models and top of the line performances of US frontier models.

[roenxi]

People are probably assuming that the trends from the last few decades continue. The EU fumbled semiconductors, production went to Asia. The EU fumbled the software revolution, the successes mainly came from the US. They fumbled the transition to smartphones despite the Nokia advantage. They missed tablets; seemed like they just didn't have the industrial vigour to make a serious attempt.

The safe money is they are going to be an also-ran for the AI revolution. They did manage to force Apple to switch from using lightening connectors to USB though so their wins can't just be laughed off. Maybe they'll surprise us but it'd be a welcome change from their usual routine.

[jimmydorry]

We're lucky the EU regulators moved so slowly that the industry had already consolidated around USB-C (a standard that Apple was a key participant of and would have eventually moved to eventually). When they were first deciding what to do back in 2209, they decided that Micro-USB was the best standard. Imagine a world where everyone was forced to use Micro-USB...

The obvious takeaway here is that a country / blok can't regulate their way to innovation... so I'm not exact sure why you included it in your list of paradigm shifts. If anything, when the next paradigm shift around charging drops, the EU will be once again on the back-foot due to these short-sighted USB-C regulations they enacted.

I do share your sentiment that EU will miss the train once again on AI.

[sofixa]

> The EU fumbled semiconductors, production went to Asia

Production of state of the art semiconductors, yes. NXP, STMicro, Infineon are still there and massive in automotive, industrial, card chips, etc.

> The EU fumbled the software revolution, the successes mainly came from the US

Worldwide massive success, mostly yes. Most European countries have their local or regional success stories though.

> The safe money is they are going to be an also-ran for the AI revolution

Not really. Past performances, or lack thereof, are not indicative of future ones.

Mistral are pretty good and selling well in the enterprise space. Some of the best voice models are coming from France (Kyutai).

[joe_mamba]

>Production of state of the art semiconductors, yes.

If you fall out of the state of the art then the claim of EU fumbling semiconductors is correct. The richest block in the world should settle for no less than being state of the art. Anything less is fumbling it.

>NXP, STMicro, Infineon are still there and massive in automotive, industrial, card chips, etc.

The EU semi companies you listed are absent from the state of the art and only make low margin commodity parts that don't have moats. ASML exists but is not enough for claiming EU superiority since the EUV light source is still US IP designed and manufactured. And one top company is too little.

>Worldwide massive success, mostly yes.

Worldwide success is where the big money is, and you need a lot of money for cutting edge research and experimentation to build the future successes. Hence the claim of EU fumbling software is correct.

>Most European countries have their local or regional success stories though.

EU mom and pop shops aren't gonna make enough money to be able to afford risky ambitious ventures the likes of FAANGs have. Which is probably why you work for Hashicorp, a large global US company, and not some local EU company.

[sofixa]

> EU mom and pop shops

Who said anything about mom and pop shops? You're arguing in extremely bad faith, as usual with this topic.

Doctolib, Revolut, Adyen, Nokia, Ericsson, Siemens, and tons of others I can't be bothered to list.

> The EU semi companies you listed are absent from the state of the art and only make low margin commodity parts that don't have moats

You think industrial controllers don't have a moat?

> If you fall out of the state of the art then the claim of EU fumbling semiconductors is correct.

Absolutely not. There is more to the world that state of the art.

[joe_mamba]

>You're arguing in extremely bad faith, as usual with this topic.

Care to explain your wild accusations. I never attacked you directly, just the points you made.

>Doctolib, Revolut, Adyen, Nokia, Ericsson, Siemens, and tons of others I can't be bothered to list.

Do those make anything the US or China can't? A doctor appointment scheduling app? Seriously?

>You think industrial controllers don't have a moat?

I never mentioned industrial controllers. Just the chips and microcontrollers those companies make.

>There is more to the world that state of the art.

If you like competing in low margin race to the bottom jobs, sure. Just don't be surprised your tech wages are low then.

[PaulHoule]

ASML, SAP, Airbus to say a few.

[joe_mamba]

That's it? Just 3 companies? Out of which one is a state propped defense provider, and the other won from purchasing US tech. IDK how you can see that as a win for the world's richest block.

[wat10000]

Past performance is extremely indicative of future results. It's not a guarantee, but it's definitely the way to bet.

[Lapel2742]

> Why people always dismiss the European option?

Mistral is good for many tasks where you do not need SOTA or near SOTA performance. They cannot compete if you do.

[3s]

It’s not top of the line and mostly not open source

[GistNoesis]

Europe is always 10 years ahead in all theoretical aspects.

Then they need money.

So most of the talent flee or get bought, typical example in machine learning space is huggingface or fchollet.

Then European government plays catch-up and offer subventions, but at the same time makes rules to make sure companies don't threaten US dominance, or Asian manufacturing.

Mistral is typically playing catch the subsidy game.

Europe is constructed so that it can't win, but can "pick" the winner between scylla and charybdis, pest and cholera.

[WarmWash]

>Europe is constructed so that it can't win, but can "pick" the winner between scylla and charybdis, pest and cholera.

Europe is constructed so you can take 60 days vacation, work 32 hours a week, get tons of social benefits, can't really lose your job, and retire when you are 65 with a full pension.

Which is excellent. Unless you need to be economically competitive.

[pb7]

>60 days vacation

Not a thing.

>work 32 hours a week

Not a common thing.

>get tons of social benefits

That you pay for in high taxes.

>can't really lose your job

Layoffs happen at the same rate as elsewhere.

>retire when you are 65 with a full pension

Unless the government decides to push back your retirement because it's insolvent.[0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_French_pension_reform_str...

[joe_mamba]

>Europe is constructed so that it can't win, but can "pick" the winner between scylla and charybdis, pest and cholera.

Because they have no spine and no leverage/muscle on the international stage to throw their weight around and make sure they get what's best for themselves at the expense of everyone else the same way US, China, etc do.

They play the international nice guy that just ends up being the doormat everyone takes advantage of, being at the mercy of Russian and Azeri gas, at the mercy of US tech, energy and defence, and at the mercy of Chinese manufacturing after dismantling their own manufacturing, at the mercy of Turkey for migration enforcement, etc so they can't do anything radical that upsets their "partners", or that makes their virtue signaling policies look bad, or risk massive repercussions they aren't prepared for, so they just turtle, bury their head in the sand and pretend everything is going fine while falling further into obscurity.

EU flaunts its "moral values" as its strength, but their geopolitical adversaries have no such values and are dominating over them in the process exploiting their morals against them as their weakness. There's nothing virtuous in being/acting weak and letting others dominate you.

[GistNoesis]

European Union construction happened after the second world war in the context of the Marshall Plan ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan ) to help rebuild Europe that had been destroyed.

By design European laws are superior to national laws. Leaving the union is also instant bankruptcy because all countries have very high level of debt which are only guaranteed because they are in the union.

European population is getting old and replaced by a migration coming mainly from previous African colonies.

Future paying for the past.

[roenxi]

> Leaving the union is also instant bankruptcy because all countries have very high level of debt which are only guaranteed because they are in the union.

That seems to violate basic physics and accounting laws. It isn't possible for everyone to be in debt all at once, because when everything nets out then there isn't anyone to make the loans. Someone has to be producing the goods that get consumed.

[GistNoesis]

That's the magic of interest rates. Countries in the EU, let's say France for example have roughly 115% of GDP of debt. To service the interest of the debt it must finance each year the debt by paying the interests, and borrowing the sum on the market to reimburse the previous debts which are currently reaching their terms. The full owed amount is never paid back, but can be rolled forward indefinitely.

These interests are currently ~2% for France. Which mean the debt is manageable and the interests can be paid with the citizen's tax and the music can continue to play. But once France get out of the UE, interests rates become 5% then the citizens tax are not enough to pay the debt, and nobody wants to lend money to France anymore because even at 5% interests the risk of default becomes too great and they risk not getting the full amount-owed back so nobody lends, and since their is no money in reserve, and they can't borrow it means they default => bankruptcy. France doesn't have its own currency anymore so it cannot print its own money which compounds the problem. National resources get plundered, citizens get poor.

It is a game of musical chair which is highly non-linear.

[ahartmetz]

>after dismantling their own manufacturing

Uhm, Europe is not the US. We still have a lot of manufacturing. It varies by country - the UK unfortunately had structural problems, finance supremacy and a Thatcher who hated unions so much that she'd rather destroy unionized industries than have unions. Central Europe still does a pretty large amount of manufacturing.

[joe_mamba]

>We still have a lot of manufacturing.

Then why are we afraid of China and the US and cave in to their demands?

Why is german manufacturing output back to where it was in 2006?[1]

[1] https://x.com/ThorstenPolleit/status/2047436171903394294/pho...

[ahartmetz]

We still have a lot != it's doing fantastic and is expanding.

[john_minsk]

For a lot of people in the world Europe = USA

[benterix]

But this makes zero sense. Two different continents, values systems, law systems. Not to mention the current USA administration is openly hostile to Europe. So why would anyone confuse the two.

[coliveira]

Europe is at the mercy of the USA. Any difference in posture is due to local politics which can swing local elections, but European leaders are willing and eager to do what the US wants.

[benterix]

Sure, I'd agree with that a few years ago. Nowadays when the USA asks for something like just using their military bases for refueling, they're laughed at.

[quantum_state]

Europe will not be independent as long as there are US military bases there. Saying otherwise would be kidding oneself.

[benterix]

You are aware that the number of American soldiers in these bases is symbolic and their presence is meant to be a deterrent for Russia?

[f6v]

Europe in general is a wide term. Like, UK is in Europe and is a surveillance state.