[spacedcowboy]

Right now, I suspect most members of NATO are far more likely to vote the US is suspended than anyone else... That would cause chaos, but... Maybe it's worth a little chaos now for real stability later, not to mention that all the money being paid to the US for their weapons could be redirected locally.

[jschveibinz]

No U.S., then no real Article 5 deterrence unless EU increases military spending by 3x. A war in Europe will cost the EU trillions. This is the choice: 3x military budgets and 20% cuts to social program budgets vs. U.S. membership and leadership. I don't think the EU has the political will to achieve these changes, but it's just my opinion. As a U.S. taxpayer, I'd be fine with less government spending on NATO if it came to that.

[spacedcowboy]

Given that the only country to ever invoke article 5 is the US, well ... not much of a loss, really.

EU is already increasing military spending, but it doesn't need to be anywhere near 3x - unless the US actually follows through on its threat to invade EU nations of course, and then we're into WW3. Everyone loses.

The EU is funding Ukraine more than the US is, and Russia is having problems with just the Ukraine. They have nukes, sure, some of them may even be operational, but conventionally they'd be no match for NATO-sans-US, even right now.

Currently the EU is spending a fucking fortune paying for US weapons - the real reason Trump wanted NATO to spend more is because it's all just been income to the USA. Fuck that. It may take a while to wean off the US teat, but its now inevitable I think. Americans have demonstrated the inherent weakness of their political system, and the world has realised it cannot count on the USA to be a reliable or predictable partner nation.

Over time, the US will inevitably lose its bases in Europe and its ability to project power will be curtailed, it will lose a large chunk of its economy of scale with weapons when coutries aren't buying them (and therefore funding their R&D) and hopefully that reduction in US world power will change things for the better. At this point, even China is looking like a better partner-nation than the USA to Europeans. At least they do as they say, and they're stable.

[croes]

3x military spending would mean more than 100% of the government’s budget for military spending.

For instance Germany: GDP 4.5 trillion € 5% : 225 billion € Budget : 520 billion €

[croes]

You do realize that for Germany 5% of the GDP already is more than 50% of the budget.

3x military spending would mean more than 100% of the budget for military spending.

You know what happens if you spend 0% for social security, healthcare, education, infrastructure?

You don’t need a war to ruin a country.

Just look at the US. An Empire in the downfall like the Roman Empire, you just haven’t realized that.

[jfengel]

It would cost Europe trillions, but it would also cost the attacker trillions.

Russia has shown itself to be utterly outclassed. A conventional war with the EU would be barbaric and expensive but short.

China has sufficient forces to attack Europe, but zero motivation. It would be a trillion-dollar war if it happened, but it won't.

The most likely scenario for Article 5 is the same as last time: a rogue state (probably via a non-state proxy). The resulting war would be asymmetric, but Europe could do it with existing forces. It would cost tens of billions but not trillions.