[AlecSchueler]

What do you want me to take from your BBC article? Their mutual and explicit commitments to peace?

> it's something to look at closely every April and October. Seems like we're good for this April

So the rationale for the belief is that a specific American scholar says it. And what he says is "it could happen any time but so far we've always been lucky."

Honestly without any actual reasoning or evidence to back that up it's difficult to take it any more seriously than a tarot reading.

The invasion of Greenland seems much more likely.