[thimabi]

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything?

The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

[alaudet]

The problem is that the genie is out of the bottle, even if you try to regulate it away it pops up in offshore jurisdictions and uses crypto. The ease with which polymarket can be manipulated is infinite because there are so many different random things you can bet on. It's a sign of our times and I don't think there is much that can be done about it by anyone.

[vizzier]

> offshore jurisdictions and uses crypto.

This vastly increases the barrier to entry for the normal person though. Is your position that just because laws don't work 100% of the time we shouldn't bother with them?

[alaudet]

I didn't say that, you said that.

[Dylan16807]

They didn't say you said it.

But wow what a useless way of conversing that is. They asked because it's unclear what you're implying. So could you please clarify if you think regulation would be useful? Or should be done despite being futile? Or shouldn't be done? I can only think of those three answers, is there another?

[alaudet]

I think smart policy would be a good start. I just made a comment on the sign of our times. I could have worded my one line reply better. I do think it will be difficult to regulate as I don't see a political appetite to do so. Maybe some countries will get it right.

[vizzier]

For the record, I do agree with this perspective at least from an external observer of the US. Many places already regulate these types of gambling much better. What I mostly took issue with is what I read to be a resolute throwing up of the hands of any action being useless.

It is indeed unfortunate that the level of corruption in the current US administration likely precludes any action on it in the current term.

[daheza]

Bans from the AppStores will go a long way to removing this behavior. Sure a few die hards will always find a way to gamble, that does not mean we should not have regulations for the majority.

[anigbrowl]

You don't need to be a diehard to use a browser instead of an app.

[palmotea]

> It's a sign of our times and I don't think there is much that can be done about it by anyone.

Isn't cryptocurrency (for the most part) very traceable? If you make it too hard and risky for most people to participate in, you'll limit the negative effects. You could probably quite effectively discourage it by sanctioning any transactions with one of these markets, you've got some opportunity because at some point the cryptocurrency needs to be converted to/from cash.

Of course, you'd have to dedicate some investigative and enforcement resources to the effort.

If to bet on a prediction market you have to both use a VPN and launder your money like you're a drug dealer, and I don't think many people would do it.

[ImPostingOnHN]

> Isn't cryptocurrency (for the most part) very traceable

Mostly no. If you're connected it to a banking account, or other KYC platform, maybe, but the folks capable of doing that are part of the same administration supposedly doing the manipulation, so they would not investigate themselves.

Indeed, they are actually fighting against those trying to regulate it [0]

Indeed, the president's son works for Polymarket, and has invested in it [1]

0 –https://www.npr.org/2026/04/02/nx-s1-5771635/trump-cftc-kals...

1 – https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025/08/polymarke...

[palmotea]

>> Isn't cryptocurrency (for the most part) very traceable

> Mostly no. If you're connected it to a banking account, or other KYC platform, maybe,

But if you're (say) and American betting on it, the money almost certainly flows through one of those entities. And if you're using bitcoin the ledger is totally public, so you could track it from Coinbase (KYC) to whatever wallet the prediction market is using to accept payment (or vice versa).

> Indeed, they are actually fighting against those trying to regulate it [0]

Choosing to "do something about it" or not is a different question than can something be done at all. I was addressing the latter.

[ImPostingOnHN]

How can I, an ordinary person, track it from Coinbase (KYC) to whatever wallet the prediction market is using to accept payment (or vice versa)." in order to link a real identity to a prediction market identity?

I don't have access to that. The government which has access to that is the very government making money doing this, so would not investigate itself.

If your question was purely technical, the answer is maybe, depending on the exchange flow. e.g. Maybe it was exchanged through Monero along the way or something, then the answer might be closer to "no".

[palmotea]

> How can I, an ordinary person, track it from Coinbase (KYC) to whatever wallet the prediction market is using to accept payment (or vice versa)." in order to link a real identity to a prediction market identity?

KYC data is certainly confidential.

> The government which has access to that is the very government making money doing this, so would not investigate itself.

I'm not obsessed with the Trump administration, so let's not make everything about them, OK? There are other governments in the world and there will be other administrations in the US in the future. I would like to talk about prediction markets in general.

[Tangurena2]

We seem to be seeing the repetition of every stock/securities fraud that led to the creation of the SEC. But we're seeing people who refuse to let any reasonable regulation to happen.

[danny_codes]

Making gambling illegal except in controlled places reduces the amount of people gambling.

The existence of illegal gambling is far less a problem than the issue of legal gambling from your phone.

[Svoka]

As Ukrainian I find bets if some city would be captured - peak degeneracy. People are being sent to die or protecting their homes should not be someone bet.

[thenewnewguy]

Anything on the site? Yes. Anything at all? No - Polymarket themselves make the markets (and I think they have some partners that can make markets as well, but point is some random user cannot make a market).

[qurren]

> some random user cannot make a market

You absolutely can market make on Polymarket. The barrier to entry is actually extremely low; you can do it from an AWS instance in Dublin (the closest non-geo-restricted region to the Polymarket exchange), and don't need the kind of infra that is needed to market-make on US stocks. Retail can absolutely do it on anything crypto-based.

In order to market make, you just need to price probabilities better than everyone else. That's it.

On Wall Street on the other hand it has come down to FPGAs and free space microwave links because fiber optics' index of refraction causes a ~31% reduction in the speed of light. If you don't have millions of dollars you can't get into that game. Over-regulation cas resulted in this space being only accessible to the ultra-rich.

[lostlogin]

Watching interviews with the CEO is cringe material to an extraordinary level.

[pocksuppet]

They're banned in the USA and Europe, so you can't "just" make an account - you have to use a VPN.

[neonstatic]

I'm worried it will set the tone against all markets and trading, which would be very regrettable.

[VectorLock]

Our zeitgeist is now "the grift is the goal."

[whatisthiseven]

Unlikely regulators will do anything given Trump's son is involved with both companies.

[e28eta]

John Oliver just did a segment on prediction markets. https://youtu.be/ZN4njIQcSR4

Turns out the US federal regulator is not doing their job, and is actively trying to prevent US states from imposing regulations.

[danny_codes]

The Trump admin, abdicating their duties? How unexpected /s

[bloppe]

Yep, you can bet on anything. Mike Selig is in charge of regulating it, and he's pretty zealous about suing any state regulators trying to exercise their right to regulate gambling. I think the days of the wild west are clearly numbered, but one guy with a burning passion and a big agenda (and the backing of Don Jr) can get a lot done in the meantime