[vibe42]

Both are possible; increasing demand and bubble collapse.

The way this could happen is if model commoditization increases - e.g. some AI labs keep publishing large open models that increasingly close the gap to the closed frontier models.

Also, if consumer hardware keep getting better and models get so good that most people can get most of their usage satisfied by smaller models running on their laptop, they won't pay a ton for large frontier models.

[otterley]

I’m going to stick my neck out a bit and predict that model commoditization will never happen as long as humans keep producing new content and innovation for models to train on. Sure, some open models will be good enough to write software against, but that’s but a fraction of the overall market for this technology.

[byproxy]

> as long as humans keep producing new content and innovation

Well.. we won't have to as we'll have models to do it for us!

[otterley]

I'm sure you were kidding, but seriously, the fact that AI-produced music pretty much all sounds the same is a good indicator that AI isn't particularly creative.

[what]

It’s not about creativity. The incentive to produce drops to zero when an LLM is just going to slurp it up and regurgitate it without some form of compensation (notoriety, money, whatever).