[Veedrac]

Do you not... remember? The US life expectancy is 79 years. 7.9 years ago was late May 2018. The best LLM was... wait, there weren't any. There was ELMo, an embedding model. It wasn't just not smart at agentic coding, it wasn't even just not smart at writing code snippets, it wasn't even just not smart at answering questions of any kind, it wasn't even just not good at producing a coherent output, it wasn't even just not good at producing coherent sentences, it was _not even the point where people thought unconstrained text output was a thing machines did_.

There is no step along the ladder which has remotely evidenced or supported that the next step is going to be ten, twenty, a hundred times harder than the last step on the ladder, but a constant chorus of people singing at every moment, each moment wrong, that the next step is the one.

[pmarreck]

There's nothing I've seen that cannot be modeled as an asymptotic approach to highish human intelligence. Which makes sense, since it's essentially a parroting model, and the limit of that is by definition, the same highish human intelligence. I don't think one can assume that thrusting beyond that is self-evident.

Put more succinctly: You can't win a race by following the leaders. Predicting the next token based on training input is literally "following" (plus some random variation).