[dinfinity]

> The base scenario in recent war games

January 2023. Specifically focused on an invasion of Taiwan. And the analysis report hardly mentions drones. Not saying it isn't useful info, but it is in essence not much more than an educated (but outdated) guess. Using terms like "showed that" is thus highly unwarranted.

> Those are substantial losses but assuming all the losses were f35(they were not) even at current non wartime production rates the United States could replace that in a few years time.

You make that sound as if it is not that much, even though the losses (were theorized to have) occurred within a matter of weeks. If anything, it strengthens the point that F-35 production is going to be inadequate in a longer-lasting conflict.

[nradov]

Which specific drone models are likely to be effective in a major air and naval conflict in and around the Taiwan Strait?

[tucnak]

Sea Baby

[nradov]

Doubt it. The sea states tend to be higher around Taiwan.

[tucnak]

There are semi- and fully submersible variants on the way, that can stay underwater for prolonged periods of time! Sea Baby is growing into quite a few different things over the months.

[nradov]

The submersible drones are quite slow, and require significant support from external sensor platforms. They're useful for defending or denying constrained areas but they can't do much to protect a Chinese invasion fleet near Taiwan.

[tucnak]

It remains to be seen whether your assay is correct or not