[dgroshev]

In a serious war drone factories are getting bombed (by F-35s) and there is no need to handle a never-ending stream of drones. The war in Ukraine is special because neither side is capable of air supremacy.

Note that the original article doesn't say anywhere that F-35-like capability is not needed.

[denkmoon]

In a serious war why would an adversary like China not put their drone factories deep underground, deep in the territorial interior?

[M95D]

Drones can be made in ordinary civilian houses and apartments. It's too expensive to dig an underground factory just for that, and even if they do (let's assume an abandoned mine could be used), they would still have vulnerable power supply and vulnerable transport. Power plants, transmission lines, rail tracks, bridges are part of the targeted infrastructure. The further they are from the front, the more a logistical nightmare it becomes to move them to where they're needed.

[vasac]

I would guess that there's a big difference between assembling a drone (which can easily be done in a kitchen) and mass-producing parts such as batteries and gas engines for drones that have to fly more than a few dozen kilometers.

[dgroshev]

Even a single Group 3 UAS like Shahed is larger than a lot of kitchens. They can't be assembled in civilian houses.

You're confusing short range, highly Ukraine-specific Group 1 quads with long range OWA drones.

[fc417fc802]

So Ukraine isn't a serious war then? And I take it you believe we failed to employ that strategy in Iran ... why, exactly? The alternative interpretation being that isn't how things work. Swarms of cheap drones are the new reality thus appropriate countermeasures are required on the front lines.

[luma]

The key difference is that "swarms of inexpensive drones" can be made in "swarms of normal looking residential garages". The entire enterprise can be decentralized making it much tougher to target with strategic weapons.

[PearlRiver]

America does not want to prepare for that kind of conflict. It wants B2 bombers because those look cool when they fly over during the Superbowl.

Ukraine is a real war and it is about men and women crawling in the mud constantly terrified of getting blown up. It is literally battle of the Somme again. How do you recruit college kids for that?

[doodlebugging]

You don't recruit them, you draft them.

[expedition32]

Thank god I'm too old. Although I suppose you're never too old for a human wave assault...

[suburban_strike]

Laws are mutable.

Men aged 25 to 60 are subject to conscription under martial law in Ukraine.

Yugoslavia did the same in the 30s, conscripting everyone 21 to 50 before turning Communist.

Japan widened it to 18 to 60 by the time they lost WWII.

[bdangubic]

Bone spurts will take care of that draft (I’ve read that in the President’s Biography…)

[tim333]

I was thinking that. For most of the last sixty years Russia / the USSR was the peer adversary usually mentioned for NATO to fight. I think they look weaker than they are because Ukraine has actually been pretty competent in the fight.

Re. no swarms of drones because the factories have been bombed, do people really think that'll work on China?

[thephyber]

The US doesn’t have air supremacy in Iran. We have air dominance, but shoulder mounted infrared guided (bypasses stealth paint to go after engine exhaust) AA is still taking out the occasional F35 and A10.

RU/UA is special because RU completely screwed up the first 3 weeks of the war (likely because of the culture of sycophancy Putin has, similar to Trump) and was driven out of central UA. Russia is too proud to admit they lost and UA wasn’t allowed to attack into RU territory until their suppliers (US, EU) were confident RU wouldn’t nuke us in retaliation. Now UA is busy dismantling RU’s economy and war making industry. Ultimately it’s not comparable to any other war of our lifetimes for several reasons.

UA drone factories aren’t in large industrial buildings. They have hundreds of office / home locations where the parts are printed / assembled. RU largely has a very few mega military vendors who make drones / missiles and they have consolidated their efforts in a few (now vulnerable) locations.

F35 capability is excellent for preparing the battlefield, such as the first few hours when softening up air defenses.

But don’t underestimate how much all countries are learning from watching RU/UA or US/Iran. Drones will continue to evolve to meet the gaps in affordable interception, affordable anti-5thGen aircraft, etc. UA now has armed land, sea, and air drones and each has variants like scout, bomber, interceptor, etc. we will continue to see specialization and comparative advantage evolve in the space.

[dgroshev]

The US absolutely has air supremacy in Iran. You don't roll out B-52s in a contested airspace. MANPADS have an abysmal ceiling height, they are largely irrelevant short of some very narrow circumstances.

Just for your benefit, stealth coatings and materials (not "paint") are a tertiary defence after shaping and electronic warfare.

Group 3 UAS can't be assembled in homes and office buildings in any meaningful numbers. They are too big. Even Group 2 is marginal. I think you're confusing Group 1 quadcopters with long range OWA drones like Shaheds.

[fsagx]

>They have hundreds of office / home locations where the parts are printed / assembled

This shouldn't be a big surprise to Russia or anyone else, as it has precedent. German aircraft production peaked in 1944 at the height of allied strategic bombing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_aircraft_production_dur...