[tptacek]

In the last month there has been a sharp vibe shift among cryptography engineers based on rumors that we may have demonstrations of CRQCs much sooner than anticipated, perhaps within 5 years. You're not going to get satisfactory answers beyond that; everybody understands the "factored 15" thing, the people for whom the vibe has shifted have priced that in.

[kasey_junk]

It’s coming from everywhere all at once. Is there a prediction market on timing yet (literally one of the only useful things I can think of for the damnable casinos).

I’ve seen so much change so fast my assumption is someone did it already and preprints are making the rounds.