[airstrike]

I'm not saying insider trading would happen only as something becomes news. I'm saying you, as the outsider, doesn't find anything out until very close to the prediction materializing. That information provided to you by the insider comes very close to the event happening, because that's how the insider minimizes the risk that the event unfolds differently from their bet.

> People working with non-insider knowledge are still going to be betting against each other before that point. They are still going to establish a likelihood of a thing happening that's more accurate than I would by myself.

How is this useful information at all? Other than to sate your curiosity and undiagnosed gambling problem.

Price discovery in capital markets is useful because, well, there is no other way to discover price. By definition, the price of an asset is what someone is willing to pay for it.

Event discovery in prediction markets is throwing your money away hoping you guessed right, despite the fact that the biggest markets have insiders who are always going to outperform you. It's a sucker's game.