[ggreer]

> Tesla doesn't even have the permits to operate Robotaxis in California and probably never will because they are actually stricter vs Texas.

I'd like to note that in just a few months, the goalposts have moved from "Tesla will never get rid of their safety drivers in their Robotaxis" to "Tesla will never operate Robotaxis in California."

As before, would you like to bet on your prediction? I'm willing to wager you any amount up to $1,000 that before the end of 2028, Tesla will have Robotaxis in California, available to the public, without a safety driver. Note that this may not require a permit for deployment, just driverless testing, as that is how Waymo currently operates.[1]

December 31st, 2028 may seem like a long ways off, but it's much sooner than never.

1. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto...

[UltraSane]

"Tesla will never get rid of their safety drivers in their Robotaxis"

They didn't though, they just moved them to a chase car. Because Elon Musk is an incredibly successful con artist. Why isn't every robotaxi driverless and open to the public like Waymo is? Tesla is so far behind Waymo it is laughable.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-t...

Tesla touts California robotaxis but does nothing to get permits

Documenting driverless testing miles is critical for a series of permits

Tesla logged zero miles last year in California for the sixth straight year

Waymo documented 13 million miles over a decade before securing driverless ride-hailing permit

[ggreer]

You can find videos of people taking Robotaxis without any chase car.[1] Though the use of chase cars shouldn't be surprising. Waymo did a similar thing with their self-driving rollout. They started with a small number of cars in suburbs in Arizona, with safety drivers. As they built up trust in the system, they gradually removed constraints and oversight. Now they have autonomous vehicles in complicated environments (such as San Francisco) with remote human assistance for when the software can't handle something. (Sometimes these remote operators are overwhelmed, such as when the power goes out in San Francisco and too many Waymos request human intervention.[2]) One should expect Tesla to follow the same path of gradually removing supervision as they build trust in their autonomous systems.

Will you take the bet or not?

1. https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1qqlpgg/un...

2. https://waymo.com/blog/2025/12/autonomously-navigating-the-r...

[vel0city]

Hey what do you know its that same guy David Moss that has nothing but pro-Tesla posts providing the evidence. Strange how it always seems to be the same few people over and over here.

[ggreer]

Unless you think the video is faked, I'm not sure what your point is. It's an example of an unsupervised Robotaxi trip without any chase car. Of course you're going to get a selection effect where enthusiasts are mostly the ones posting these videos, especially in the case where they're recording behind the vehicle to prove there is no chase car. Normal people just take Waymo/Robotaxi/Zoox without recording and uploading their trip.

[UltraSane]

It isn't fake but it is a one off stunt not open to the public being relentlessly hyped by long time pro-Tesla shills which is very characteristic of Tesla's entire Robotaxi operation. People don't normally upload Waymo trips because they are completely mundane.