[3eb7988a1663]

How is there enough volume to cover the other side of the bet with these minutes-before trades?

[andrepd]

The oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge

[JumpCrisscross]

> oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge

Sure. But these aren't trades in "the oil market." They're bets on Polymarket and a specific oil-futures exchange.

[OutOfHere]

Are you implying that there is arbitrage between the prediction market and the real market? Until now we were assuming that the prediction market is self-contained, with its other side staying within the confines of the prediction market.

[huorricannes]

the other side can and many times is an arbitrageour which has positions in both the prediction market and the real market

[3eb7988a1663]

For sure, the real trading markets are huge. I mean the betting platforms.

[huorricannes]

the betting markets offset positions with the real markets. it's all connected

[JumpCrisscross]

> betting markets offset positions with the real markets

Need a strong source for this. The size (and regulatory) disconnect between the two would seem to make making markets in both a bit silly.