[wslh]

I would be careful about attributing all of this to ordinary insider trading. Another plausible explanation is that some activity could come from state linked or intelligence adjacent actors, where the goal is not only profit but also testing or exploiting prediction markets as an auxiliary information channel.

[iambateman]

Occam would disagree.

[OutOfHere]

The most Occam-safe explanation is not insider trading but actually hard work in analytics to rapidly surface intelligence from X and other alternative data sources.

[huorricannes]

occam doesn't work in financial markets.

because if it did you would print money by following occam.

[iambateman]

But it does work in conspiracy theories which is what we have here.