[meriksson]

Sure thing, my reasoning goes like this:

My first premise is that we are still in a relatively early stage of the technological boom signified by things like electronics, computers, robotics and the internet. These technologies have changed life on Earth dramatically, but I think there is at least as much to come. In any case, for the next two or three decades, more and more aspects of life will be the object of automation, computation etc. So the demand for software development will continue to increase, and probably by a lot. Software will become an even greater part of the economy and continue to crowd out other types of business.

My second premise is that only a small percentage of the population have the talent and inclination to become very good programmers, and children with these traits often do not get proper encouragement and guidance. So from the beginning, it is very hard for society to produce a large number of programmers. More importantly, the ratio of people who can become good programmers is probably more or less a constant, while the need for software development will grow much faster.

I also see reasons to believe that we are getting worse at producing programmers. For example, software is become more mature, hiding more and more of the internals. I started programming at age seven, in the eighties. In local stores I could buy glossy magazines with articles about programming, often with entire programs that I could copy into Basic etc. For sure, there is the internet now, but what kind of programming culture for kids is there? I could pick my first computer apart and learn all about how it worked. The kids these days learn to use iPads long before they learn to speak, but they never get to see what's inside. Who knows where this will lead? We already know that a lot of graybeards are retiring and they are often impossible to replace since the current generation of programmers is not nearly as hard-core.

[mdda]

The Raspberry Pi could be the foundation of a new generation of programmers : But I don't see the size of the 'nerdy clique' being any bigger now than when I started out (soldering a 6502 machine).

If programming were painting, it's probably easier to become a housepainter now, but the percentage of Picassos is probably the same.

[meriksson]

Great analogy with painting! I take what I wrote to apply to good programmers, the core people needed to get serious things done. Tolerably capable housepainter-programmers will be churned out in the millions, to be sure.

Things like the Raspberry Pi is great for reaching the nerdy clique, but I agree that the latter does not seem to be growing. On the other hand, I hear autism rates are way up in the valley - perhaps we can increase the size of the clique by selective breeding? =)