[GuB-42]

Switzerland has a fertility rate of about 1.4 and decreasing, unless they do something, there won't be much of a country left in a few generations. Solutions can involve immigration or natalism, but something has to change.

Japan is worse.

[dublinstats]

Or significantly increasing life-expectancy. Or new fertility technologies. A few generations is a long time.

The birth rates of the immigrant waves would presumably just plummet quickly anyway as they join the culture. Since that seems to have happened with all our other health problems.

[rayiner]

I don’t know anything about Switzerland, but immigration isn’t a solution to the prospect of Japan “not having a country left in a few generations.” There might be more or fewer people living on the islands, but “Japan” will be gone either way.

[felipeerias]

Nowadays Japan’s fertility rate is higher than most of its neighbours. We are just used to pick it as an example because it started aging earlier than most other countries.

Japanese population is still over 120 million. Forecasts put it falling below 100 million at some point in the second half of this century.

Things will have to change in order to keep population stable in the long term, but the Japanese approach seems IMHO more sensible than that of other countries.

Cohesive democratic societies are fragile.

[Starman_Jones]

I can’t parse this statement. I’m not sure if this about culture changes or about climate threat.

[platinumrad]

How do you define "Japan"?

[rayiner]

The standard way. The same way you define “Thailand” or “Bangladesh” or “Vietnam?”

[platinumrad]

It seems like "Japan" will very much still exist in either of your scenarios then.

[throwawaypath]

The nation state located on the islands of Japan populated with almost exclusively Japanese people.

[platinumrad]

Good news then: it's still going to be there in a hundred years!

[throwawaypath]

It won't be "Japan" if they start importing immigrants by the tens of millions.

[red-iron-pine]

they're islands mon ami, it's not hard to define them -- the borders are fairly straightforward

you can piddle around about a few tiny islands elsewhere, e.g. okinawa, but the main islands are undisputedly "japan"

[platinumrad]

Sounds like it will still exist then, barring climate catastrophe.

[LAC-Tech]

A lot of people would rather live in their own aged society than a slightly younger foreign one.

Emphasis on slightly younger. Fertility is declining basically everywhere. Much of the developing world is now below replacement including India and China.

[fzeroracer]

'A lot of people' usually means the predominately older strata of society. Japan has been having issues with the younger generation being locked out of employment and advancement because of older generations needing to hold onto their career with a death grip and retirement ages going up.

The aged society scam can only persist as long as they can exploit the younger generation. When that collapses, the end result is either going to be leaving the elderly to die or things start collapsing in new and interesting ways

The only reason why people 'prefer' this is for the same reason 'prefer' to believe climate change doesn't exist. Eventually reality catches up.

[LAC-Tech]

You've completely missed my point.

Immigration is not a long term solution to an aged society. The societies of target countries are aging as well and not far behind.

What you advocate is to bolster the work force of a country with a fertility rate of ~1 and falling, with people from a place with a fertility rate of ~2 and falling.

[nslsm]

The solution to a low fertility rate is to… destroy the country? What’s the difference?

[slaw]

Africa has fertility rate 4.02 in 2025. Do you want Switzerland look like Africa?

[Thorrez]

There are numbers in between 1.4 and 4.02. There's no reason Switzerland would need to swing to the complete opposite end.

[LAC-Tech]

Africas fertility rate is declining massively as well.

[slaw]

Yes, by 2091 Africas fertility rate should be 2.1