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by ashleyn 57 days ago
>Prediction markets don't have any "natural" reason like that for excluding insider trading. It's just "game designers" crying their hearts out when someone ruins their game by having an advantage.

I can think of a few very good reasons you would want to prohibit insider trading on prediction markets. Betting on war outcomes; being incentivised to commit war crimes or throw vital operational goals for financial gain. Wagering on public figures' jobs; being incentivised to harm them.
2 comments
polski-g 57 days ago
If I worked at Amazon, "AWS outage by ... date" bets on Polymarket would look mighty tempting.
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Karrot_Kream 57 days ago
CFTC's guidelines around prediction markets specifically call out war outcomes.

"As a general matter, DCMs are reminded that section 5c(c)(5)(C) of the CEA provides that the Commission may determine that an event contract is contrary to the public interest if the contract involves, among other things, assassination, war, or terrorism."

The guidelines are at https://www.cftc.gov/csl/26-08/download

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