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by kwar13 59 days ago
Did you read the link? A NO bet on Joe Dart is a YES bet on Cory Wong + Others.

It is trivial. Saying NO to a candidate means you're saying YES to ALL other candidates with varying probabilities that would sum to the neg risk of that NO bet.
1 comments
pinkmuffinere 58 days ago
Ah I see, I missed the + Others part in my initial reading, i see it gives the same payout. The shared link just asserts the same thing you’ve asserted with additional technical language that I don’t understand, so reading it didn’t help me much.

Perhaps this is pedantic, but this equivalence is ignoring fees, spread, and slippage, right?

link